NASCAR: Nashville starting lineup if qualifying is canceled

If qualifying cannot take place on Saturday, what will the starting lineup for Sunday’s NASCAR Cup Series race at Nashville Superspeedway look like?

Following the only off weekend on the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series schedule, action is scheduled to resume this weekend at Nashville Superspeedway.

Qualifying for Sunday afternoon’s Ally 400 at the four-turn, 1.33-mile (2.140-kilometer) Lebanon, Tennessee oval is scheduled to begin at around 1:00 p.m. ET on Saturday afternoon, with live coverage set to be shown on USA Network.

Four qualifying sessions have been canceled already in the 2023 season due to bad weather. Here is what the starting lineup would look like if qualifying is canceled on Saturday afternoon.

Provisional Starting Lineup
1st – Martin Truex Jr.
2nd – Kyle Busch
3rd – Joey Logano
4th – Chris Buescher
5th – Christopher Bell
6th – Ross Chastain
7th – William Byron
8th – Kevin Harvick
9th – Chase Elliott
10th – Kyle Larson
11th – A.J. Allmendinger
12th – Michael McDowell
13th – Brad Keselowski
14th – Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
15th – Ty Gibbs
16th – Alex Bowman
17th – Ryan Preece
18th – Justin Haley
19th – Corey LaJoie
20th – Ryan Blaney
21st – Bubba Wallace
22nd – Daniel Suarez
23rd – Denny Hamlin
24th – Tyler Reddick
25th – Austin Dillon
26th – Austin Cindric
27th – Aric Almirola
28th – Ty Dillon
29th – Harrison Burton
30th – Chase Briscoe
31st – Josh Bilicki
32nd – Erik Jones
33rd – J.J. Yeley
34th – Todd Gilliland
35th – Noah Gragson
36th – Brennan Poole

This provisional starting lineup was generated by using the NASCAR qualifying metric.

The metric was introduced as a way of setting starting lineups in the absence of qualifying back in 2020. The metric is still used whenever qualifying is canceled, and when qualifying takes place, the metric is used to set the qualifying order of both qualifying groups (in reverse order).

The metric takes into account four factors: the driver’s finish in the most recent race (25%), the car owner’s finish in the most recent race (25%), the car owner’s rank in the owner standings (35%), and the rank of the driver’s fastest lap in the most recent race (15%). For drivers in the same car from race to race, the first two categories are combined into one category weighted at 50%.

Fortunately, The Weather Channel is only calling for a 7% chance of rain on Saturday afternoon, so qualifying should be able to take place as planned.

However, that was believed to be true last year as well, before a surprise rain shower popped up between qualifying rounds one and two, causing the starting lineup to be set based on the round one times alone.

In a dry session, the fastest five drivers in each of the two groups advance to round two, the shootout for the pole position.

DraftKings Sportsbook, which is offering fans $150 just for signing up and placing a $5 bet, lists Hendrick Motorsports’ Kyle Larson as the +550 favorite (bet $100 to win $550) to win this event.

On Sunday, June 25, the Ally 400 is set to be broadcast live on NBC from Nashville Superspeedway starting at 7:00 p.m. ET. Be sure to begin a free trial of FuboTV now and don’t miss it!