In most NASCAR Cup Series seasons, there is someone, usually several someones, who separate themselves from the pack.
Recent times have seen an increase in parity, largely due to the introduction of the Next Gen car, more competitive fields from a team standpoint, and greater schedule diversity that features an all-time high number of superspeedways and road courses.
Still, there has remained an elite group of drivers who can be counted on to run (and usually finish) up front each and every week. But this season, with the race to the championship now officially halfway in the books, that group is smaller than it's ever been.
Performance has regressed to the mean this season in a major way
For all the statheads out there, let's crunch some numbers. Out of the 36 full-time Cup Series drivers, 30 of them currently have an average finish located somewhere in the middle third of the field, between 13.0 and 25.0. The only exceptions to this are Chase Elliott (10.3), Christopher Bell (12.1), Kyle Larson (12.7), and William Byron (12.9), who are all above that margin, and Riley Herbst (25.9) and Cody Ware (29.2), who are below it.
One could speculate that this has been due to a high element of randomness in the finishing orders this year, but it really hasn't been. In fact, using average running position instead of average finish, the number of drivers stuck in that bubble of mediocrity actually increases to 31 out of 36. Byron and Tyler Reddick are the only competitors with an ARP better than 13th, with Cole Custer, Herbst, and Ware worse than 25th.
Essentially, nearly every driver in Cup has been marginally above average or marginally below average, with variance in their results prone to wild swings more than ever. Take Joe Gibbs Racing teammates Ty Gibbs and Chase Briscoe. Gibbs has an ARP of 17.2, while Briscoe's is 17.4. Yet one of them, the one who has run slightly worse on average, is 10th in points, while the other is 24th.
Elliott's season may encapsulate this phenomenon better than anyone. Though he scored an impressive win at EchoPark Speedway on Saturday night, his status as the series leader in average finish is extremely misleading.
On the surface, it would lead one to believe he has been the best driver in 2025, when in reality he has usually been about the 10th best, week after week after week. Only, where in most seasons someone more dominant would have a greater cushion to account for a couple unlucky breaks, that has not been the case.
All in all, the standard of performance that's required to compete for a championship has never been lower than it is this season. Consistency is only valuable if it comes at a level of excellence, and in 2025, that describes nobody in the NASCAR Cup Series. Only time will tell if someone can change that in the second half of the year and separate from the pack.