At Iowa Speedway two weekends ago, 20 of the 27 full-time IndyCar drivers were officially eliminated from championship contention, including the entire Team Penske trio. With five of 17 races remaining on the 2025 calendar, seven drivers entered Toronto still mathematically eligible to win the title.
Now that number is down to four.
Entering the Toronto race, there were 270 points remaining on the table for any given driver, as race winners can score up to 54 points in a race. A win itself is worth 50, and an additional point is paid out to all drivers who lead at least one lap. The polesitter scores an additional point, and the driver who leads the most lap scores two more.
It was still a longshot for anybody to challenge Chip Ganassi Racing's Alex Palou, winner of a modern era record seven of the season's first 12 races. He owned a 129-point lead over Arrow McLaren's Pato O'Ward.
Now there are 216 points remaining on the table. And the drivers in fifth, sixth, and seventh place in the championship standings are all outside of that window.
3 more IndyCar drivers eliminated in Toronto
Following his 13th place finish in Toronto, Arrow McLaren's Christian Lundgaard is 219 points behind Palou. Following his DNF, Meyer Shank Racing's Felix Rosenqvist is 227 points behind. And following his 14th place finish, his first non-top 10 since the Indy 500, Meyer Shank Racing's Marcus Armstrong is 253 points back.
Still eligible to win the title, aside from Palou, are O'Ward, Andretti Global's Kyle Kirkwood, and Chip Ganassi Racing's Scott Dixon, though realistically O'Ward is the only one with a remote chance to make a run. He is 99 points behind Palou after winning in Toronto, as Palou only managed 12th.
Kirkwood moved up to third in points with a sixth place finish, but he is 173 points behind Palou. One point behind Kirkwood is Dixon following a 10th place effort.
All drivers who compete in a race score at least five points, so any driver can make up as many as 49 points on a particular opponent in each race, as long as they compete. If we operate under that assumption, there is a 196-point window (rather than a 216-point window) with four races remaining.
Those windows are set to become 147 points and 162 points after this weekend's race at Laguna Seca, meaning that O'Ward should still be championship eligible heading into the season's antepenultimate race at Portland International Speedway two weeks later, but Kirkwood and Dixon have their work cut out of them to remain in mathematical contention after race 14 of 17.
Palou is seeking to become the first driver of the modern era to lead the championship from start to finish with an Indy 500 win along the way. The most recent driver to lead the standings all year was Dixon in 2020, and the most recent driver to win the Indy 500 en route to a title was Dario Franchitti, also in the No. 10 Honda, back in 2010.
The Java House Grand Prix of Monterey is set to be shown live on Fox from WeatherTech Raceway Laguna Seca beginning at 3:00 p.m. ET this Sunday, July 27. Start a free trial of FuboTV now and don't miss any of the action!