There are seven races remaining on the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series regular season schedule, and the first 19 races have produced 12 different winners.
With two road course races and a superspeedway race still on the regular season calendars, plus the fact that there are still seven winners from last year (among full-time drivers) who have yet to find victory lane this year, there is a very strong possibility that the regular season concludes with more than 12 total winners.
Will there end up being more winners than playoff spots? It's hard to say. It's never happened since the modern playoff format was introduced in 2014.
But it has come close, specifically in 2022.
The 2022 regular season produced exactly 16 winners, and then the first three playoff races were won by three non-playoff drivers, bringing the total to 19 in 29 races.
The 16 playoff spots go to the regular season champion and the multi-race winners. Remaining spots go to the single-race winners. If there are more winners than playoff spots, the tiebreaker among single-race winners is points. If there aren't enough winners to fill the field, the tiebreaker among non-winners is points.
But as of right now, there could still end up being as many as 19 different regular season race winners, meaning that the Cup Series could technically see up to three winners miss the playoffs entirely.
Technically that number could be four, since the regular season champion could be winless, but with the top four drivers in points having already won this year, we're going to give that possibility a pass (for now). 23XI Racing's Tyler Reddick is the top non-winner in points in fifth place, 48 points out of the lead.
With all of this in mind, let's have a look at which drivers are currently most vulnerable.
Trackhouse Racing's Shane van Gisbergen is the lowest winner in the point standings down in 27th place, but he is a multi-race winner, so he is locked in. The other three multi-race winners are Hendrick Motorsports' Kyle Larson and Joe Gibbs Racing teammates Denny Hamlin and Christopher Bell.
The three lowest single-race winners in the point standings are Team Penske teammates Joey Logano and Austin Cindric and Wood Brothers Racing's Josh Berry. They find themselves in 12th, 18th, and 22nd place, respectively.
Seeing as how there are only three non-winners ahead of Logano in points, he probably isn't at risk of missing the playoffs if he stays right around where he is. As for Cindric and Berry, they do not want to see any new winners emerge from this point forward, unless those new winners are well below them in the standings (and stay there).
Should someone such as RFK Racing's Ryan Preece (14th in points) or Kaulig Racing's A.J. Allmendinger (15th) add their name to this year's list of winners, that could make things a bit precarious for Cindric and Berry as the Daytona International Speedway regular season finale approaches, as they would run the risk being the lowest single-race winners in the standings in the event that there are more winners than playoff spots.
Race number 20 on the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series calendar is the Toyota/Save Mart 350, which is set to be shown live on TNT Sports from Sonoma Raceway this Sunday, July 13 beginning at 3:30 p.m. ET.