With three "wild card" races having opened up the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series season at Daytona International Speedway, Atlanta Motor Speedway, and Circuit of the Americas (COTA), the point standings might not look like what you'd expect.
Yes, Hendrick Motorsports' William Byron, the Daytona 500 winner, and Joe Gibbs Racing's Christopher Bell, winner at Atlanta and COTA, are two drivers who regularly make deep playoff runs.
But the nature of superspeedway racing and road course racing has resulted in an otherwise interesting makeup of the standings through three races.
In other words, expect there to be some significant changes to the pecking order once the "regular" portion of the regular season calendar really gets going.
Here are five drivers who currently sit above the cut line but probably won't be able to get into the playoffs on points. They'll likely need an upset victory, and with three races that very easily could have been won by underdogs now in the books, that could be even more challenging.
Michael McDowell, Spire Motorsports
Michael McDowell has quietly had a nice start to his first year with Spire Motorsports, to the point where he finds himself in eighth place in the point standings and 18 points above the playoff cut line. He owns the best worst finish in the series of 13th, and that came after he rallied from six laps down at Atlanta.
But he has yet to record a top 10 finish, and one of his two career playoff appearances with Front Row Motorsports (2021) came only come because he scored a regular season victory. In 2023, he would have been the last driver in, even had he not won, but for that to happen again, he will need to keep this level of consistency. I'm not sure Spire Motorsports are quite on that level yet.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Hyak Motorsports
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. is another driver who has had a quietly consistent start to the 2025 season, with his worst finish of 18th place being the third best among all drivers. He finds himself in 10th in the standings, 13 points above the cut line.
But he is another driver who has never qualified for the playoffs on points. What Stenhouse has going for him is the fact that he is coming off of back-to-back winning seasons, and he is almost always a threat in superspeedway races; all four of his career victories have come in such events.
John Hunter Nemechek, Legacy Motor Club
John Hunter Nemechek was one of only two drivers to start the 2025 season with back-to-back top 10 finishes, the other being Team Penske's Ryan Blaney, but a mistake getting into the pits cost him a decent finish at COTA. So even after the strong start to the year, he sits in 14th place in the standings, nine points above the cut line.
Considering the fact that Nemechek finished in 34th place in last year's standings, I'm not buying the fact that he and Legacy Motor Club have really made major improvements just because he ran well at two superspeedways.
Carson Hocevar, Spire Motorsports
Carson Hocevar has already had everybody talking in 2025, thanks to his aggressive driving style which resulted in a career-high runner-up finish at Atlanta. But that Atlanta race was one he probably needed to win to have a shot at the playoffs, as Spire Motorsports have yet to prove themselves at more traditional race tracks.
As it stands, Hocevar sits just five points above the playoff cut line in 15th place in the standings, but it's not hard to see that advantage turning into a deficit before long.
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