Just 12 months after IndyCar fans could finally stop asking why Josef Newgarden, by far the series' winningest oval driver since joining Team Penske in 2017, couldn't seem to conquer the Indy 500, another question emerged late last May: can Newgarden three-peat?
In the 106-year history of the "Greatest Spectacle in Racing" before the 2023 edition, there had only been two last-lap lead changes. Newgarden has since doubled that total, passing Marcus Ericsson on lap 200 for the win in 2023 and Pato O'Ward in 2024.
Newgarden is one of six drivers to win the Indy 500 in back-to-back years, but the best three-peat attempts only resulted in runner-up finishes: Al Unser in 1972 and Helio Castroneves in 2003. Both are four-time winners.
For all we know, we could be just over a year away from Newgarden joining the four-time winners' club, which also features A.J. Foyt and Rick Mears.
He did win nine of 12 oval races from August 2021 to May 2024 – an insane statistic in a series as stacked as IndyCar is – and it would have been 10 of 12 if not for a shock failure while he was waxing the field at Iowa Speedway in July 2022.
But first things first: can he three-peat at Indy?
Come race day in 2025, there will probably 32 drivers who have other ideas. Who has the best chance to stop him?
Here are the top five drivers most likely to stop a Josef Newgarden Indy 500 three-peat.
All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
T-1. Pato O'Ward, Arrow McLaren (+750)
Two drivers are actually tied with Newgarden as +750 co-favorites. We'll start with the driver who has come oh-so-close pretty much every year since 2021, when he finished fourth in what was probably actually his weakest Indy 500 effort during that stretch.
Pato O'Ward couldn't quite get around Marcus Ericsson on the final lap in 2022, he crashed battling for Ericsson for second in 2023, and he couldn't manage to hold off Newgarden on the final lap in 2024. Nobody knows the feeling of "almost" better than O'Ward, and it's a feeling he won't want to have again this May.
T-1. Kyle Larson, McLaren-Hendrick (+750)
Kyle Larson's first Indy 500 attempt was certainly a learning experience. Even without his late speeding penalty, he wouldn't have been in contention for the win, but he had a shot at a top five finish after an impressive fifth place qualifying effort.
An early restart hiccup also set him back, so with a full "month of May" experience under his belt, he should be one to watch for reasons beyond the novelty of the Memorial Day Double attempt this time around.
T-3. Scott Dixon, Chip Ganassi Racing (+1100)
If Will Power doesn't crash late in the 2024 race, Scott Dixon is probably a two-time Indy 500 winner, given how the fuel strategies were tracking at the time, and it probably wouldn't have been all that close. That was made even more obvious by the tone of the interview NBC did with Mike Hull after Power wrecked.
The 2008 winner, who holds the record for most Indy 500 laps led, seems to be hindered by something new each and every year, and the clock is undoubtedly ticking on his IndyCar career. Is this finally the year for number two, or will the Speedway once again ensure something is there to derail him?
T-3. Alex Palou, Chip Ganassi Racing (+1100)
Aside from his rookie year when he crashed, Alex Palou has yet to have a bad Indy 500. He placed runner-up behind four-time winner Castroneves in 2021, battled back from 30th to ninth in 2022 and 30th to fourth in 2023 after issues in the pits, and managed to work his way into the lead pack late after his worst ever qualiyfing effort (14th) in 2024.
Palou is widely considered the best active IndyCar driver without an Indy 500 winner. While his 11 career wins aren't quite Newgarden's 26 when Newgarden finally broke through two years ago, he is the new active leader in the unenviable "wins without an Indy 500 win" category.
T-3. Scott McLaughlin, Team Penske (+1100)
Among ovals that Scott McLaughlin has raced at more than once, Indianapolis Motor Speedway is the only one at which he did not secure a top three finish in either his first or second start.
But he is coming off of a year in which he set the Indy 500 pole speed record, led the most laps, and placed a career-high sixth before going on to win IndyCar's unofficial oval championship – and he won it with an oval race to spare. My guess is these odds will be much shorter than +1100 come race day.
Full odds can be found here.
The 109th running of the Indy 500 is set to be broadcast live on Fox from Indianapolis Motor Speedway beginning at 10:00 a.m. ET on Sunday, May 25, with qualifying weekend scheduled for Saturday, May 17 and Sunday, May 18. Start a free trial of FuboTV and don't miss it!