Before 2026, every single NASCAR Cup Series season had had at least two different winners in the first three races. This year, 23XI Racing's Tyler Reddick is the only winner through the first three events, having won at Daytona International Speedway, EchoPark Speedway (Atlanta Motor Speedway), and Circuit of the Americas (COTA).
While it's easy to suggest that that streak will end at Phoenix Raceway, Reddick had never won at Daytona or Atlanta heading into the year either. He also technically hadn't won at the COTA layout used on Sunday, as his first COTA win came on the longer layout in 2023.
Reddick is listed by DraftKings Sportsbook as the sixth favorite to win this Sunday's 312-lap Straight Talk Wireless 500 around the four-turn, 1.022-mile (1.645-kilometer) Avondale, Arizona oval, where he has twice finished third, and he's listed at +1100.
The top five drivers are all listed between +550 and +750. Here's a look at the five drivers most likely to find victory lane in the desert.
T-1. Ryan Blaney, Team Penske
Odds: +550
Given the fact that he won the championship there in 2023 and nearly won another in 2024, it was sort of hard to believe that Ryan Blaney had never actually won a race at Phoenix before the 2025 season finale. Now that the monkey is off of his back, he should once again be a threat to contend at one of his best tracks.
T-1. Denny Hamlin, Joe Gibbs Racing
Odds: +550
Denny Hamlin dominated at Phoenix in November, and in a perfect world, he'd be entering this weekend's race as the track's most recent winner and the series' reigning champion. After a rough start to the 2026 season, don't be surprised if he's extra motivated to turn things around at the ultimate "coulda, woulda, shoulda" track of his illustrious career.
T-3. Kyle Larson, Hendrick Motorsports
Odds: +650
Whenever NASCAR visits an oval, there's an unwritten rule that Kyle Larson is required by sportsbooks to be listed among the favorites. That's how it seems, at least. Although he won the championship at Phoenix a year ago, he did so without leading a lap, and unlike every other driver listed, he hasn't won any Cup Series races since May 2025. He also hasn't won at Phoenix in eight Next Gen races.
T-3. Christopher Bell, Joe Gibbs Racing
Odds: +650
You have to go back to 2023 to find the most recent March race at Phoenix that was not won by Christopher Bell. In both 2024 and 2025, he notably won the second stage en route to securing the race victory, and he did so despite starting outside of the top 10 on both occasions.
5. William Byron, Hendrick Motorsports
Odds: +750
And that most recent March winner at Phoenix not named Christopher Bell is indeed William Byron, who has won a stage in five of his eight most recent appearances at the track and has scored points in 21 consecutive stages (excluding stage three race results) at the venue going all the way back to 2020. After triggering the aforementioned caution four months ago with a flat tire, he'll be looking to make amends as well.
Full Phoenix race odds can be found here and are always subject to change.
Tune in to Fox Sports 1 at 3:30 p.m. ET this Sunday, March 8 for the live broadcast of the Straight Talk Wireless 500 from Phoenix Raceway. Start a free trial of FuboTV and catch all of the action!