For roughly the sixth year in a row, the 2024 season was supposed to be Denny Hamlin's last chance to finally capture his elusive NASCAR Cup Series championship.
And, for roughly the sixth year in a row, here we are again the following September asking ourselves: "Is this Denny Hamlin's year?"
The 20-year veteran has made it to at least the round of 8 every season since 2019, just to miss out on the biggest prize each time. But 2025 is going to be different, and here's why.
Denny Hamlin was written off last winter, and it's why he's more dangerous than ever
Of all of the years that were supposed to be the year Hamlin's window closed, last season's unremarkable playoff exit was the most "the window has closed" of them all.
After picking up three early wins in 2024, the Joe Gibbs Racing driver was invisible during the playoffs with only 26 laps led in those 10 races. Then over the offseason, he lost crew chief Chris Gabehart as well as longtime primary sponsor FedEx.
At age 44, oldest among remaining full-time drivers after Martin Truex Jr.'s retirement, the proverbial cliff was waiting.
It happened to Jimmie Johnson, who won his final race less than a year after winning his record-tying seventh Cup Series title in 2016. It happened to Kevin Harvick, who only found victory lane two more times in his final three seasons after his nine-win 2020 campaign ended with a whimper. Even Kyle Busch, who is four years younger than Hamlin, hasn't won since the first half of 2023.
If it was going to happen to Hamlin, it was going to happen now. If anything, though, he has seemed extra motivated throughout 2025, especially as the 23XI Racing team he co-owns with Michael Jordan finds itself embroiled in a messy lawsuit against NASCAR.
Hamlin hasn't had the most dominant campaign, and several of his five wins have simply fallen into his lap.
At Darlington Raceway, Ryan Blaney got robbed by a late caution and the No. 11 crew stole the victory on pit road. At Dover Motor Speedway, Chase Elliott dominated before his crew chief Alan Gustafson inexplicably brought him into the pits only a handful of laps after a green flag cycle, handing the Virginia native the lead.
Sunday's Enjoy Illinois 300 at World Wide Technology Raceway at Gateway was another theft by the No. 11 group. Had it not been for a late-race caution for Ty Dillon blowing a brake rotor, a number of drivers were set to stretch their fuel to the finish after Hamlin had made his final stop. Prior to that, he had only been leading because Bubba Wallace missed a shift on a restart after leading 73 laps.
Sometimes it's just your year, when all the breaks go your away. It's as if the "racing gods" are aligning the stars for Hamlin to finally win the title, and under the circumstances, it would be the weirdest possible outcome both for him and for NASCAR. And that's exactly why he's going to do it.