For all intents and purposes, 23XI Racing's Bubba Wallace had a strong start to the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series season. Even with a number of finishes that weren't particularly great, he was able to rack up enough stage points so that he was well inside the top 10 in the standings after racking up back-to-back third place finishes at Homestead-Miami Speedway and Martinsville Speedway in March.
Things haven't been going as well for the driver of the No. 23 Toyota since then, however. Sure, a recent string of three straight DNFs was followed by a bounce-back stint featuring finishes of sixth, fourth, and 12th place.
But after an all-around disastrous weekend at Pocono Raceway, he was involved in a wreck at Atlanta Motor Speedway that left him unable to finish higher than 22nd.
Yes, Wallace, was fortunate enough to advance to the second round of the in-season tournament, simply because Trackhouse Racing's Daniel Suarez wrecked out of Saturday night's Quaker State 400.
But aside from his fortunate seeding draw, it was yet another disappointing weekend for Wallace, and he is now the 16th and final driver above the provisional playoff cut line.
Bubba Wallace needs to right the ship, and fast
Ironically, the driver who passed him in the standings at Atlanta did him a favor – a massive favor, quite frankly. Hendrick Motorsports' Alex Bowman entered the race as the final driver above the cutoff, and he gave teammate Chase Elliott a much-needed push that helped him secure the win.
That kept RFK Racing's Brad Keselowski from winning. Elliott was already ahead of both Wallace and Bowman in the playoff picture, but because Keselowski is 27th in points, him winning would have moved the cut line up, and Wallace would now be on the outside looking in, despite the fact that he ranks 13th in total points himself.
Wallace is a two-time Cup Series race winner, but he hasn't won since 2022. Additionally, both of his wins have come in the playoffs, after he had already failed to qualify for the playoffs. His lone true playoff berth came in 2023, but, based strictly on points per race of the No. 23 team vs. the No. 9 team, he would not have qualified had it not been for Elliott's early-season injury.
Now Wallace finds himself in an extremely vulnerable position, with only four spots still open in the 16-driver postseason field behind the 12 drivers who have already vaulted themselves to the top of the provisional playoff picture by winning.
And with eight races remaining on the regular season schedule, including two road course races, a street course race, and another superspeedway race, there is a very good chance that there will be several more new winners, perhaps enough to produce the first-ever regular season with more than 16 in total.
Wallace may very well need to be one of them to have a shot at getting back to the postseason for the first time in two years.
This weekend's race is the Grant Park 165, which is set to be shown live on TNT Sports from the Chicago Street Course beginning at 2:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, July 6. Bowman is the reigning race winner.