Before Formula 1’s summer break, Red Bull and Max Verstappen appeared to have conceded the world championship. McLaren teammates Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris were ahead in the standings by a wide margin, making a comeback by the four-time defending world champion seem nearly impossible.
Just four races ago, Verstappen was trailing Piastri by 104 points, and even if you go back one race before that, the Dutch driver has earned 119 of a possible 133 points, matching the McLaren duo and cutting Piastri's lead to 40 with just five race weekends to go.
His dominance over the past two months has been so evident that he is now the betting favorite to lift the championship trophy in Abu Dhabi, after having been listed at +8000 only a month ago.
Although Verstappen rightfully deserves a majority of the credit for this incredible comeback, part of it is also due to McLaren and their unique approach to managing Piastri and Norris. "Papaya Rules" have been in place to keep things entirely fair between the two drivers, but that fairness may ultimately cost them the championship double.
Verstappen can end ‘Papaya Rules’ once and for all
McLaren have been under scrutiny for their viewpoints on various incidents that have occurred between Norris and Piastri. Rather than letting the two drivers simply race, similar to how Toto Wolff let Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg battle, McLaren seem to be keeping score and making sure things are always level.
By going into each of the remaining five race weekends with that mindset, they risk cutting it close. With Verstappen having made substantial gains every recent race, McLaren’s inability to prioritize the world championship leader could result in a fifth Verstappen title rather than a first for either of their two drivers.
If Verstappen were to be victorious in the end, there would surely be lots of blowback directed toward Zak Brown and Andrea Stella for the decisions they have made over the course of the season.
Not only have McLaren taken the championship too casually in terms of not considering Verstappen a serious threat, but losing because they effectively got in their own way would make the historic collapse an even greater embarrassment.
The concept of "Papaya Rules" would go down in Formula 1 history as a concept that failed when the team actually tried to utilize it. A comeback from Verstappen could cause McLaren to fully abandon the rules they have been using to police Piastri and Norris for good.