Through the first 12 races of the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series season, it looked like Kyle Larson could compete for 10 wins this season. With three wins in that span and five additional top five finishes, that was not out of the question after he previously hit the 10-win mark in his first season driving for Hendrick Motorsports in 2021.
But once he attempted the Memorial Day Weekend "Double," running the Indianapolis 500 and Coca-Cola 600 on the same day, Larson was not the same. His 37th place finish at Charlotte Motor Speedway was the first of five finishes outside the top 30 since his most recent win at Kansas Speedway in May, a far cry from what is expected from the No. 5 team.
While Joey Logano continues his playoff push despite a subpar season as he attempts to end a bizarre 11-year streak and Denny Hamlin's pursuit of his first title remains intact after getting caught up in multiple incidents during the round of 12, including the dramatic last lap at the Charlotte Roval, Larson is making his case as the championship favorite, even though he is no longer the points leader heading into the round of 8 opener at Las Vegas Motor Speedway on Sunday.
Kyle Larson appears to be getting hot at the right time
While many expected Larson to get back on track once the playoffs rolled around, that did not happen immediately, with a best finish of 12th at World Wide Technology Raceway at Gateway in the round of 16. However, Larson had more than enough playoff points accumulated throughout the season to comfortably advance to the round of 12.
After a pair of top seven finishes at New Hampshire Motor Speedway and Kansas, Larson came home runner-up at the Charlotte Roval after leading 27 laps and going toe-to-toe with race winner Shane van Gisbergen for the top spot for much of the race.
That type of consistency and speed at three distinct tracks is why Larson is tied with Christopher Bell for the most top 10 finishes (19) in the Cup Series this season.
The runner-up finish at the Charlotte Roval ended a brutal stretch of results on road and street courses for Larson, featuring finishes of 32nd (Circuit of the Americas), 36th (Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez), 13th (Chicago Street Course), 35th (Sonoma Raceway) and 39th (Watkins Glen International).
That all added up to the lowest average finish among all 36 full-time drivers on those layouts this season coming into the race, even worse than Cody Ware, who is last in the driver standings.
More importantly, Larson looks like his usual self heading to one of his best tracks in "Sin City". In 18 starts, he has three wins, eight top five finishes and 13 top 10 finishes. With two of those wins coming in his four most recent starts there, Larson could be the first driver to punch his ticket to the Championship 4 and not have to worry about the chaos of Talladega Superspeedway and the elimination drama at Martinsville Speedway.
In a playoff field as tight as this one where only eight points separate Hamlin from the top of the standings to the cut line, and Larson precariously clings to a four-point advantage, points will be at a premium more than they have ever been.
Considering how strong Larson has been at Las Vegas and the momentum with which he enters the round of 8, there is a good chance he is in position to capitalize on his recent success and return to victory lane on Sunday with a second title in sight.