On Tuesday morning, Formula 1 posted a list of world championship scenarios for each of the three remaining contenders heading into Sunday's season-ending Abu Dhabi Grand Prix at Yas Marina Circuit.
In the Instagram post, they listed all possible scenarios in which McLaren's Lando Norris, Red Bull's Max Verstappen, and McLaren's Oscar Piastri can win the 2025 world championship.
Norris leads the standings by 12 points over Verstappen and 16 points over Piastri following Verstappen's seventh win of the season in this past Sunday's Qatar Grand Prix at Lusail International Circuit.
F1 makes inaccurate world championship calculation
For the most part, their calculations are accurate. But there was one part of the Verstappen scenarios that is incorrect, and it could prove crucial.
On the slide titled "Max Verstappen's Path to the Championship", Formula 1 states that he would win the title with a third place finish if Norris finishes ninth or lower and Piastri finishes fourth or lower.
A third place finish is worth 15 points, and a ninth place finish is worth two, so Verstappen would indeed be ahead of Norris by one point. However, Piastri can actually finish as high as second, since a second place finish is worth 18 points; this would still put him one point behind Verstappen. He would not need to finish fourth or lower for Verstappen to clinch.
On the slide titled "Oscar Piastri's Path to the Championship", Formula 1 effectively confirmed this error, because they correctly state that Piastri would win the title with a second place if Verstappen finishes fourth or lower. It's true; this would put him two points ahead of Verstappen.
But it also means that Piastri would not win the title with a second place finish if Verstappen finishes third, contradicting the incorrect calculation on the previous slide.
It's a small error, but it could turn out to be exposed on Sunday. If Norris finishes ninth or lower, Verstappen finishes third, and Piastri finishes second, the wording of the Verstappen slide implies that Piastri would be world champion.
But if this all happens, the world champion would really be Verstappen.
UPDATE: Formula 1's post has since been deleted and will likely be re-published with this correction.
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