Formula 1: Max Verstappen could replace Lewis Hamilton, but not at Mercedes

Lewis Hamilton is now 40 years old as he prepares to make his Ferrari Formula 1 debut. To whom will the team turn when he eventually retires?

Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes, Max Verstappen, Red Bull, Formula 1
Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes, Max Verstappen, Red Bull, Formula 1 | Mark Thompson/GettyImages

With seven-time Formula 1 world champion Lewis Hamilton off to Ferrari for the 2025 season, bringing an end to the most successful 12-year partnership between driver and team the sport has ever seen, Mercedes eyed replacing him with four-time reigning world champion and current championship leader Max Verstappen.

That attempt came up short for the 2025 season. Though Verstappen is said to be allowed to leave Red Bull, under certain conditions, before his contract expires at the end of 2028, he is set to stay put, while Mercedes have turned to rookie Andrea Kimi Antonelli to pair with George Russell this year.

There is still a chance that the Silver Arrows will do whatever necessary, including nearly tripling his current $55 million salary, to sign Verstappen for the 2026 season, even if that means they are forced to let Russell walk.

But Toto Wolff banking on that possibility may or may not be the smartest option, considering the fact that it not only didn't pan out for 2025 but the fact that Aston Martin are said to have approached Verstappen as well, with Lawrence Stroll's team having signed legendary engineer and designer Adrian Newey following his departure from Red Bull to spearhead the team's efforts on their 2026 challenger.

But for Max and his father Jos, perhaps a focus on the 2026 season, which is set to mark the start of a new era and rules and regulations, may be somewhat short-sighted when it comes to a potential change of scenery for the 61-time Grand Prix winner.

Max recently competed in his 200th Grand Prix and said that there is no way he'll stick around for 200 more. But he also just turned 27 years old, and let's not forget that even Hamilton talked retirement nearly a decade ago, at which point he was a three-time champion. Four world titles later, he is under contract for at least another two seasons with a new team.

Could Ferrari be in play for Verstappen?

One may think that Ferrari, a team historically known for having a number one and a number two driver, would not want to pair two alphas together with Charles Leclerc and Verstappen.

But that theory has seemingly gone out the window already, with the team reportedly giving the 105-time Grand Prix winner Hamilton a $100 million per year deal to sign for 2025 and beyond.

For reference, Leclerc, who recently notched his eighth career win to continue what has been a career year, is reported to be the third highest paid driver in the sport at only one-third of that amount: $34 million annually. He is under contract with the team through 2028.

Though Hamilton, even having stood atop the podium for the first time since 2021 this past summer, is clearly no longer in his absolute prime, it's highly unlikely that Ferrari have signed him to be the number two to Leclerc. Lewis Hamilton or not, that kind of money is not exactly the going rate for a Formula 1 wingman these days.

It's also unlikely, if not totally nonsensical, to suggest that they signed him to demote Leclerc to number two driver.

Ferrari executive chairman John Elkann did just about everything he could possibly do to get Hamilton's signature, and team principal Fred Vasseur has slowly but steadily been building a powerhouse.

But the Formula 1 legend is set to become a quadragenarian in January, and whether or not he extends his Ferrari deal beyond 2026 could depend on a number of factors. Even if he does, how much longer beyond that is also a major question mark.

Perhaps Vasseur can do what Wolff couldn't and replace one all-time great with another.

Though Ferrari themselves have been the brunt of countless jokes over the last decade and a half, with every year supposedly being "their year" and them consistently coming up short, either due to bad strategy or a slow car or unforced driver errors, they are currently in the midst of arguably their best season since they won their most recent constructor title in 2008.

They have a legitimate chance to pass McLaren, which are eyeing their first title since 1998 themselves, amid a recent resurgence of their own, and if they can begin the new era of regulations on top like they did to start 2022, their current trajectory could continue well down the road.

As for a Leclerc/Verstappen pairing, there has rarely been any on-track tension between these two, even though Leclerc has, since 2022, been one of the very few drivers actually able to battle the four-time champion.

Generally speaking, the quality of their battles has been head and shoulders above those between Verstappen and both Hamilton and McLaren's Lando Norris.

If not for several unforced errors, strategy blunders, and mechanical issues, Leclerc had a legitimate chance to be in the title fight three years ago.

Four-time world champion (all with Red Bull) Sebastian Vettel, who competed for Ferrari from 2015 to 2020, famously said that "Everyone is a Ferrari fan. Even if they say they're not. They are Ferrari fans."

Hamilton had been linked to Ferrari literally dozens of times over the last decade-plus before he actually made the move, to the extent where many who saw the news break at around 2:00 a.m. ET that unforgettable morning thought it was a joke that managed to make more rounds on social media than usual.

The Scuderia were willing to swing for the fences back in February, and there's no reason to believe that they won't be willing to do so again once the sport's statistical GOAT hangs up his helmet and his Rosso Corsa firesuit a few years down the road.

And as long as Verstappen is still competing, should anybody else really be the favorite for the seat, provided Ferrari can continue to produce a competitive package?

In his own words, "never say never".