Formula 1: How an unexpected change set off a big chain reaction

Heading into 2024, the Formula 1 grid was exactly the same as it was to end the 2023 season, marking the first time in Formula 1's 75-history that that had been the case. Teams either did not want to make a change, or there were no potential rookies who were impressive enough in Formula 2 to be promoted.

When Carlos Sainz Jr. had to withdraw from the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix this past March after just two practice sessions, not many expected Oliver Bearman to do anything impressive, given the pressure of a Formula 1 debut, much less one with Ferrari.

However, the young British driver surprised everyone with a P7 finish and six points, which placed him ahead of both Lando Norris and Lewis Hamilton.

Bearman’s incredible performance opened the eyes of many teams on the grid. There was a greater sense of confidence and belief in this season’s Formula 2 drivers and what they are capable of in Formula 1.

Bearman started the domino effect.

His initial performance started it all and later led to the attention shifting to Kimi Antonelli. Prema Racing's two Formula 2 drivers gained a lot of attention, and they proved themselves, with Bearman in both Formula 2 and Formula 1 and Antonelli in Formula 2 and Formula 1 closed-door testing.

Aside from Oscar Piastri in 2023, there had not been an impressive show of results from rookies since 2019, which is when Lando Norris, Alex Albon, and George Russell all entered Formula 1.

However, drivers such as Nicholas Latifi, Nyck de Vries, Nikita Mazepin, Mick Schumacher, Zhou Guanyu, and Logan Sargeant all underperformed severely during their respective short Formula 1 stints.

As a result, teams have grown skeptical about bringing academy drivers into full-time seats. That was likely why Red Bull brought back Daniel Ricciardo after his final season at McLaren and opted to keep the Australian driver at RB over Liam Lawson in 2024, despite Lawson's impressive string of performances toward the end of the 2023 season when Ricciardo was injured.

With the 2025 season set to kick off in just over five months, there are guaranteed to be at least four rookies on the grid, with the potential for a fifth, depending on Sauber’s decision.

Bearman is set to join Haas, Antonelli is set to join Mercedes, Lawson is set to join RB after being announced as Ricciardo's replacement for the remainder of the 2024 season, and Jack Doohan is set to join Alpine.

Sauber are poised to decide between current driver Valtteri Bottas, Formula 2 points leader Gabriel Bortoleto, or Franco Colapinto, who is currently Sargeant's replacement at Williams.

Nevertheless, Bearman’s impressive performance in Jeddah earlier this season was likely a factor in the influx of rookie signings for next season. It will be quite a change to go from 0% of the grid being rookies in 2024 to 20% or 25% in 2025.