In and of itself, the fact that George Russell doesn't have a contract to compete beyond the 2025 Formula 1 season is objectively absurd.
His performance since joining Mercedes in 2022, which saw him consistently outperform seven-time world champion Lewis Hamilton while the two were teammates, has turned him into one of the sport's more underrated stars, and that run of success has continued in 2025.
Yet Russell finds himself in a contract year and at risk of losing his seat for the 2026 season, a possibility that seems increasingly possible amid reports of the Briton having held preliminary discussions with Red Bull.
The on-paper explanation for these talks would be to replace Yuki Tsunoda. Red Bull have had little to no success finding a viable teammate for Max Verstappen in the second car, and Tsunoda's performance, while better than Liam Lawson's and perhaps even better than Sergio Perez's during the second half of 2024, has left a lot to be desired.
But the "on-paper" suggestion is also that Verstappen is under contract with Red Bull through 2028, in which case there would be no reason for Mercedes, which currently find themselves ahead of the Milton Keynes-based team in the constructor standings with an objectively stronger package, not to extend Russell's contract to avoid the potential of losing him.
The real reason has to do with Verstappen himself.
There have been talks since last year about Verstappen potentially leaving Red Bull before his contract is up, with Toto Wolff reportedly having even made an attempt to get him to leave for 2025 to replace Lewis Hamilton, which would have given rookie Kimi Antonelli more time to develop before moving to Formula 1.
That scenario, in itself, may have spelled doom for Russell, with Mercedes keen to find a place for Antonelli to ironically avoid losing him like they lost Verstappen back in 2014, when they simply had no room for him during the Lewis Hamilton-Nico Rosberg years.
Now Antonelli is settled into the team, and while Russell has outscored his rookie teammate through six race weekends in 2025, that is pretty much to be expected. But Antonelli's Mercedes future appears to be far more secure, and with the chance to sign Verstappen having supposedly reemerged, Russell still does not have a new contract.
The 2026 season is set to mark the beginning of a new era of regulations, and a lot of the speculation is that Mercedes, dominant during the turbo hybrid era, could once again reemerge as the team to beat after four-year stretch during the ground effect era which has seen them merely contend for the odd win here and there, never truly entering a race weekend as the outright favorite.
Verstappen continues to get things that shouldn't be possible out of a Red Bull car that is probably sixth or seventh in the constructor standings without his presence, and is objectively the fourth fastest car at best if you pick one random driver to drive all 10.
After a historic 12-year run with Lewis Hamilton, Wolff couldn't replace one generational talent with another. Now he might have the opportunity to land Verstappen anyway, and he doesn't want to pass up that opportunity. Pairing him with the young driver long considered the "next Max Verstappen" certainly adds to the appeal.
Unfortunately for Russell, as great as he has been, he might just be the odd man out.
There is really no other explanation for it. Russell's talks with Red Bull, coupled with Mercedes' seemingly inexplicable resistance to give him a new contract, makes it fairly obvious what the Silver Arrows' goal is here.
And it has everything to do with the four-time reigning world champion who just became a father over the weekend.