Hendrick Motorsports' Alex Bowman had an extremely strong start to the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series season, reeling off five top nine finishes, including a runner-up result, in the first six races to find himself in the top three of the point standings.
Generally considered the "weak link" at Rick Hendrick's team, Bowman's name has come up in various replacement rumors in recent seasons. But his win in Chicago last year, and his advancement to the round of 12 of the playoffs (would have been the round of 8 if not for the Charlotte disqualification) did about as much as they could do to help him quite the critics.
His strong start to the season put an end to those rumors for the time being. But since then, Bowman has just three top 10 finishes in 11 races, and he has seven finishes of 27th place or worse.
Though his 11th place finish at Pocono Raceway was not particularly disappointing, he fell below RFK Racing's Chris Buescher in the point standings with Buescher's fourth place result, and he is now the 16th and final driver above the playoff cut line.
Bowman is 13th in the standings, but three drivers below him – Team Penske's Austin Cindric (15th), Wood Brothers Racing's Josh Berry (16th), and Trackhouse Racing's Shane van Gisbergen (31st) – have found victory lane and are therefore above him in the provisional playoff picture.
Buescher shot ahead of both Bowman and 23XI Racing's Bubba Wallace on Sunday. A recent ruling which cut 30 points off of his 60-point Kansas Speedway penalty is what is currently keeping him below the 16th and final spot above the provisional cutoff.
As for Bowman, he is just 20 points above the cut line, and he is trending in the wrong direction.
And if he doesn't win before the regular season ends, he is probably not going to get in.
There are nine races remaining on the regular season schedule. The season has already produced 11 winners in 17 races, and the eight most recent events alone have produced six new winners.
With the nine remaining regular season races consisting of two superspeedway races, two road course races, and a street course race, the door is wide open for a "wild card" winner to emerge. Even if that doesn't happen, eight full-time drivers who won last year haven't yet done so this year.
The door is wide open for a 16-winner regular season, so it might take a win to qualify. And even if it doesn't, 13th in points might not be good enough.
The good news is that Bowman did win last year, and he won in Chicago, which is scheduled to host a race next weekend. The bad news is that that win is his only win in the last three-plus seasons.
On Hendrick's win list during that stretch (from March 2022), the next lowest is Chase Elliott, and he has six victories.
Sure, among Cup Series "weak links" at multi-car teams, Bowman is still probably the strongest. But if he misses the playoffs for the second time in the last three years, those replacement rumors will be hotter than ever. And after the rumors appeared to be put to bed just a few months ago, so will the seat of the No. 48 Chevrolet.
Bowman is currently signed through 2026, though primary sponsor Ally Financial is already under contract through 2028.
Atlanta Motor Speedway is scheduled to host the Quaker State 400 this Saturday, June 28. TNT Sports' live coverage is scheduled to begin at 7:00 p.m. ET.