Four-time reigning Formula 1 world champion Max Verstappen was 104 points out of the world championship lead following the Dutch Grand Prix a few months ago. Skip ahead seven races later, and he has closed the gap between himself and McLaren's Oscar Piastri, who led the standings at that point, entirely.
But he's still 24 points behind McLaren's Lando Norris with two Grands Prix and one sprint race remaining on the 2025 schedule.
With those three races remaining on this year's calendar, there are still 58 points up for grabs. Of those 58 points, 33 are set to be on offer this weekend at Lusail International Circuit, with the winner of the 19-lap sprint race around the 16-turn, 3.343-mile (5.381-kilometer) Lusail road course in Lusail, Al Daayen, Qatar set to receive eight and the winner of the 57-lap Grand Prix set to receive 25.
Max Verstappen facing F1 title elimination in Qatar
Verstappen cannot be eliminated in the sprint, as even a Norris lead would only push the lead to 32 points with 50 points still on the table.
The tiebreakers aren't yet sorted between Verstappen, Norris, and Piastri. Norris and Piastri each have seven wins this year while Verstappen has six, so any one of them could still end up with the most wins by the time the 24-race season concludes.
Norris does have an overall advantage here, however, as either Verstappen or Piastri would have to win the wins tiebreaker outright to actually own it over Norris, as Norris owns eight runner-up finishes. Verstappen has just five, while Piastri only has three.
Norris can clinch the tiebreaker with a Qatar Grand Prix victory, in which case he'd need to be 25 points ahead of Verstappen and Piastri heading into the season-ending Abu Dhabi Grand Prix at Yas Marina Circuit to have clinched the title, rather than 26.
But even with him already ahead of both his rivals by 24, a Qatar Grand Prix win (25 points) might not necessarily clinch Norris the world championship in Lusail. If Verstappen (or Piastri) finishes second in the Grand Prix, Norris might not actually end up as the top point-scorer of the weekend.
A win (eight points) or a runner-up finish (seven points) in the sprint race for Verstappen or Piastri, assuming Norris fails to score any points, means that even a runner-up finish (18 points) in the Grand Prix would be enough to remain in title contention heading into Abu Dhabi.
However, if Norris does win the Grand Prix, at least one of Verstappen or Piastri is guaranteed to be eliminated in Qatar. Any finish of third or worse in either the sprint or the Grand Prix, coupled with a Norris Grand Prix win, would eliminate Verstappen and/or Piastri.
Verstappen can only win the tiebreaker if he wins both of the season's final two races. Piastri can only win it if he wins more races than Norris from now until the season ends.
Long story short: if Norris clinches the tiebreaker with a Qatar Grand Prix win, Verstappen would need to be within 24 points to remain eligible to win the world championship heading into Abu Dhabi (as would Piastri).
If Norris doesn't clinch it, Verstappen would still need to be within 24, unless he wins the Qatar Grand Prix. If he does that, both he and Piastri would still be alive from 25 points behind.
Verstappen also faced elimination in the Las Vegas Grand Prix after entering the race 49 points behind Norris with 83 points on the table. He wound up having the best weekend possible to remain in contention, winning the race to score 25 points while Norris and Piastri were scoreless after being disqualified.
ESPN2 is set to provide live coverage of both the sprint race and the Qatar Grand Prix from Lusail International Circuit. The former is set to begin at 8:55 a.m. ET on Saturday, November 29, and the latter is set to begin at 10:55 a.m. ET on Sunday, November 30. Begin a free trial of FuboTV now and don't miss any of the action from Qatar!