NASCAR: 3 longshots who still have a chance at the championship
By Asher Fair
There is just one race remaining on the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series playoff schedule before the Championship 4 at Phoenix Raceway, and two of the four spots in the Championship 4 are still up for grabs.
One Championship 4 spot is guaranteed to be awarded by points following this Sunday afternoon's 500-lap Xfinity 500 at the four-turn, 0.26-mile (0.847-kilometer) Martinsville Speedway oval, and if the race winner is not one of the six drivers still seeking a Championship 4 berth, then the second one will be as well.
Team Penske's Joey Logano and 23XI Racing's Tyler Reddick locked themselves into the Championship 4 by winning at Las Vegas Motor Speedway and Homestead-Miami Speedway, respectively, to open up the round of 8.
Joe Gibbs Racing's Christopher Bell is the points leader by 22 points over Hendrick Motorsports' William Byron, whose gap to the Championship 4 cut line is just seven points over teammate Kyle Larson.
It is unsurprising to see Logano, Reddick, and Bell listed by FanDuel Sportsbook as the co-favorites to win the 2024 championship. All three are listed at +340. It is equally unsurprising to see Larson and Byron, who could end up in a points battle to advance, listed at +600 and +750, respectively.
But the other three remaining championship contenders are all listed as longshots.
Joe Gibbs Racing's Denny Hamlin is 18 points below the cut line and listed at +2200, followed by Team Penske's Ryan Blaney, who is 38 points below the cutoff and likely in a must-win situation, at +2500. Hendrick Motorsports' Chase Elliott, who is 43 points behind and also likely in must-win situation, is listed at +4000.
There could be good value with each of these three drivers, given their histories at Martinsville. Hamlin has gone to victory lane five times at the Ridgeway, Virginia track, and just last year, Blaney won at the "Paperclip" to advance to the Championship 4 before going on to win the title. Elliott won there in 2020, doing so in a must-win situation, to advance, and he too went on to win the championship.
Let's also not forget that Blaney was listed at +3400, the longest odds of the eight remaining contenders, to win the title during last year's round of 8.
But perhaps the best indication of value here is the fact that these three drivers are all listed in the top four when it comes to actually winning Sunday's race, which would send them to the Championship 4 – and presumably shorten their odds to somewhere in the +250 to +400 range – automatically.
Hamlin is listed as the co-favorite with Larson at +500, and Blaney is right behind them at +550. Elliott is listed at +850 after his third place finish at the track, part of a Hendrick 1-2-3, back in April. April winner Byron is listed at +1000, just ahead of Bell at +1300. Logano and Reddick, who are now more or less focused on Phoenix, are listed at +2000 and +2600, respectively.
Full odds can be found here. Odds and availability are always subject to change.
NBC is set to provide live coverage of Sunday afternoon's Xfinity 500 from Martinsville Speedway starting at 2:00 p.m. ET. Start a free trial of FuboTV if you have not already had the chance to do so and don't miss the round of 8 finale!