Seeing Kyle Larson actually in contention to win the NASCAR Cup Series regular season finale at Daytona International Speedway was relatively surprising, in and of itself, because of his historic weakness at superspeedways.
But perhaps more surprising was the fact that the Coke Zero Sugar 400 was probably his best shot to win a race since mid-May.
Larson hasn't been the same driver since his failed Memorial Day Double attempt. Whether it was the two Indy 500 practice crashes, despite calling the car "not hard to drive", the embarrassing pre-race moment with Scott McLaughlin, or an amateur move that caused a multi-car wreck on a restart, the driver once (ridiculously) considered the Indy 500 favorite simply did not have a good time at the Brickyard.
Then he wrecked twice at Charlotte Motor Speedway, and his 1,100-mile Double attempt didn't even eclipse the 600-mile mark. More than 20 drivers who only ran the Coca-Cola 600 ironically ran more miles than he did that day.
Since his Indy 500 disaster, Larson's average finish in 14 Cup races is 17.4. And since wrecking out at Charlotte, he has only led a total of 34 laps. He's led just four of those 13 races, with his top tally only being 19 (ironically at Indy), after leading eight of the season's first 13 races for a series-high 851.
Kyle Larson hasn't been Kyle Larson, and as much as the racing world loved seeing him attempt the Indy 500 again, I think we all saw what most IndyCar fans already knew: you need to be fully committed to running that race to have success. Doing it as a one-off is tough as it is; doing it as a one-off while running a 36-race stock car schedule (and dozens upon dozens of other dirt races) makes it even more challenging.
The thing is, even during his summer Cup Series struggles, Larson has still been the outright championship favorite all year long. Until now.
Kyle Larson no longer the outright NASCAR championship favorite
On one hand, it makes sense why he was the favorite. Larson had already punched his playoff ticket with victories at Homestead-Miami Speedway, Bristol Motor Speedway, and Kansas Speedway earlier in the year.
Even by literally being the definition of "mid" for the past three and a half months, he is set to enter the playoffs tied for the points lead following the 2,000-point reset, due to his abundance of playoff points. He is tied with teammate and regular season champion William Byron.
Plus, we already know how little the regular season matters under this format. We've seen eventual champions go winless for as many as 21 races to close out the regular season since the current knockout format was introduced in 2014. This playoff format rewards those who "get hot", and Larson's propensity to do so is indisputably well above average.
But even as a former Cup Series champion, Larson has historically struggled in the playoffs. He was one of the top two drivers all year in 2017 yet didn't make it past the round of 12. He didn't make his first round of 8 appearance until ending a more than two-year win drought in 2019.
In 2021, even amid a dominant season, he needed literally the greatest pit stop in the history of Hendrick Motorsports at Phoenix Raceway to have any shot at a championship-clinching 10th win of the year.
In 2022, he again fell out of contention in the round of 12. Then in 2023, he lost the lead to Ryan Blaney late in the championship round at Phoenix. In 2024, he again fell shy of the Championship 4, and that was the case despite the fact that he actually missed a race during the regular season and still managed to lead all drivers in total points.
A driver of Larson's caliber having only two career Championship 4 appearances is objectively crazy. But for that reason, it's almost like his 2021 playoff success, for as great as his season was, was an anomaly as far as his postseason career goes.
As a championship-eligible driver who had not yet been eliminated, he has won 10 times in the playoffs. Four of those 10 wins came during the final five races of 2021 alone.
So the fact that he was the outright favorite for 2025, despite having been largely invisible the whole summer, was quite surprising, even for as much as he is rightfully hailed as a generational talent.
Entering the playoffs, however, he is now listed as a co-favorite at FanDuel Sportsbook. He and Joe Gibbs Racing's Denny Hamlin, who is infamously NASCAR's winningest non-champion of all-time, are both listed at +400, just ahead of 2023 champion Blaney at +470.
Full NASCAR Cup Series championship odds are available here and are subject to change.
Sure; on any given day, it's hard to bet against Larson. It's just a bit surprising that, given his recent trajectory, it took this long for him to no longer be considered the driver with the single best chance of capturing a championship at Phoenix Raceway in November.
But now is when things really start to count. What does the No. 5 team have in store after a rough second half of the regular season?
Darlington Raceway, where Larson had arguably the most disastrous race weekend of his career back in April, is scheduled to get the playoffs underway this Sunday, August 31 with the Cook Out Southern 500. USA Network is set to provide live coverage starting at 6:00 p.m. ET. Begin a free trial of FuboTV now and don't miss any of the action!