NASCAR: How Denny Hamlin's penalty could eliminate Kyle Larson

More than five months after he won the race at Bristol Motor Speedway back in March, Joe Gibbs Racing's Denny Hamlin was issued a hefty penalty by NASCAR stemming from the victory.

Toyota self-reported an engine infraction that ultimately resulted in Hamlin losing 75 regular season points and 10 playoff points. The race-winning engine from his Bristol victory was mistakenly rebuilt by Toyota before NASCAR could tear it down and inspect it, leading to the penalty.

Because of the three positions Hamlin ultimately lost in the regular season standings due to the 75-point deduction, he effectively lost 13 playoff points as opposed to just 10. In addition, three drivers each gained a spot and thus added a playoff point to their respective tallies: Joe Gibbs Racing's Christopher Bell, Hendrick Motorsports' William Byron, and Team Penske's Ryan Blaney.

So how does Kyle Larson fit into the equation?

Team Penske's Joey Logano and 23XI Racing's Tyler Reddick have both punched their tickets to the Championship 4, with the driver of the No. 22 Ford winning at Las Vegas Motor Speedway to open up the round of 8 and the driver of the No. 45 Toyota winning at Homestead-Miami Speedway this past Sunday afternoon.

Bell is the points leader, 22 points ahead of Byron, and Byron currently occupies the fourth and final spot above the Championship 4 cut line, with only this coming Sunday afternoon's race at Martinsville Speedway remaining before the championship decider at Phoenix Raceway.

At the moment, Byron has 4,110 points, placing him seven points above Larson for that fourth and final spot. If not for Hamlin's penalty, however, Byron would have one less playoff point and thus would have started the round of 8 with one less point. So he would be sitting in the same position, but with 4,109 points, six ahead of Larson.

Given some of the razor-thin margins – even ties – that have determined who has advanced from one round to the next and who hasn't, it is entirely possible that that one extra point Byron gained from Hamlin's penalty could be the difference in him advancing over his teammate.

It's not a statistical likelihood, but like we say every year and every round, every point counts.

That would never be truer if Hamlin's penalty from a race in March ultimately ends up being why Larson fails to advance to the Championship 4.

Tune in to NBC this Sunday, November 3 at 2:00 p.m. ET for the live broadcast of the Xfinity 500 from Martinsville Speedway. Start a free trial of FuboTV today and don't miss the final NASCAR Cup Series race before next Sunday afternoon's Championship 4 at Phoenix Raceway!