NASCAR: A Denny Hamlin victory may cost him a championship

After another 34 races of "this could finally be his year", Joe Gibbs Racing's Denny Hamlin finds himself in a familiar spot in the month of October as he pursues his first career NASCAR Cup Series championship.

The driver of the No. 11 Toyota sits 18 points below the Championship 4 cut line with only this coming Sunday afternoon's race at Martinsville Speedway remaining on the schedule before the championship decider at Phoenix Raceway next weekend.

Hamlin led this past Sunday's race at Homestead-Miami Speedway with two laps to go and appeared to be well on his way to clinching a spot in the winner-take-all finale. Instead, he placed third, and he may very well need to win Sunday's Xfinity 500 to get back to the Championship 4 for the first time since 2021.

Ironically, he'd be in a better position to advance had he not won one of the three races he won earlier in the year.

Hamlin won at Bristol Motor Speedway back in March, and until just over five months later, the victory was treated like any other victory. But Toyota self-reported an infraction from that race in August, reporting that the race-winning engine of the No. 11 car was mistakenly rebuilt by the manufacturer before NASCAR could tear it down and inspect it.

Though it was a Toyota issue at its core and had no impact on the race itself, NASCAR did not hesitate to drop the hammer on Hamlin and the No. 11 team. Hamlin was docked 10 playoff points, a net loss of five considering he did score five with the win itself, and 75 regular season points.

The regular season point deduction ended up costing him three spots in the final regular season standings, meaning that it was really a net loss of eight playoff points instead of just five.

In addition, Joe Gibbs Racing's Christopher Bell, Hendrick Motorsports' William Byron, and Team Penske's Ryan Blaney each moved up a spot in the regular season standings due to Hamlin's penalty, so they all collected one additional playoff point.

Given the fact that playoff points are carried forward through each round of the playoffs, that deduction is still significant for Hamlin, since he would have started the round of 8 with a higher total than he did.

In other words, had he not won at Bristol, he'd currently have 4,100 points, not 4,092.

So if any one of those drivers advances to the round of 8 instead of Hamlin by fewer than nine points, Hamlin's own win at Bristol will literally be why he isn't in this year's Championship 4.

Bell is currently 40 points ahead of Hamlin while Byron is 18 points ahead and Blaney is 20 points behind.

Should Hendrick Motorsports' Kyle Larson or Chase Elliott beat out Hamlin for a Championship 4 spot by fewer than eight points, the same can be said; they simply didn't gain the one extra point when he dropped three places in the final regular season standings. Hamlin is 11 points behind Larson and 25 ahead of Elliott.

Tiebreakers are still up for grabs, since they are based on the best finish in each round. In the round of 8, Bell and Blaney have recorded runner-up finishes, while Hamlin has a top finish of third place.

NBC is set to provide live coverage of the Xfinity 500 from Martinsville Speedway beginning at 2:00 p.m. ET this Sunday, November 3. Start a free trial of FuboTV now and don't miss any of the action!