NASCAR will have a new points leader after Charlotte Roval race

With finishes of second place at Kansas Speedway and third at Talladega Superspeedway, Hendrick Motorsports' William Byron didn't even need to win a round of 12 race to clinch a spot in the round of 8 for the second consecutive NASCAR Cup Series postseason.

Byron is the only driver locked into the semifinal round of the four-turn, 10-race playoffs, as both races to start the round of 12 were won by non-playoff drivers. Trackhouse Racing Team's Ross Chastain won at Kansas before JTG Daugherty Racing's Ricky Stenhouse Jr. won at Talladega.

Byron has clinched his playoff spot as a result of the fact that he is 61 points ahead of Hendrick Motorsports' Chase Elliott, who is the driver in eighth place in the playoff picture.

Why the gap to eighth place matters, as opposed to the gap to ninth, is to account for the possibility of a winner from below the cut line in Sunday's round of 12 finale at the Charlotte Motor Speedway Roval. But without winning, no driver can score more than 55 points in this 109-lap race around the 17-turn, 2.28-mile (3.669-kilometer) Concord, North Carolina track.

But even with a win on Sunday, Byron will not lead the standings to start the round of 8.

Byron, who leads the standings by 17 points over Joe Gibbs Racing's Christopher Bell, has scored 23 playoff points this season, good for fourth most among all drivers. He trails teammate Kyle Larson with 47, Bell with 32, and 23XI Racing's Tyler Reddick with 28.

Even with a win on Sunday, Byron will only be at 28 playoff points (or up to 30 if he wins both stages) to enter the round of 8. That means he can start the next round with up to 4,030 total points.

Bell and Larson aren't yet locked into the round of 8, but they are currently the highest ranking drivers in the standings who aren't. Bell is 57 points ahead of the cut line (Team Penske's Joey Logano in ninth place), while Larson is 52.

For both of them to fall behind seven other drivers is mathematically impossible without an upset winner, and even with an upset winner from below the cut line, which would only drop their respective gaps to the cutoff to 44 and 39, it's not going to happen, considering the fact that it's not just the eighth place driver who would need to jump ahead of them.

Bell sits 27 points ahead of teammate Denny Hamlin, 31 ahead of Hendrick Motorsports' Alex Bowman, 32 ahead of Team Penske's Ryan Blaney, and 43 ahead of Reddick. Larson is 22 ahead of Hamlin, 26 ahead of Bowman, 27 ahead of Blaney, and 38 ahead of Reddick.

So for Byron, the goal on Sunday is simple. Go for as many playoff points as possible, because that is what will determine how many points with which he starts the round of 8. He just won't do it where he is now: at the top.

If Larson advances, he is set to start the round of 8 in first place, as there are only seven playoff points on offer on Sunday afternoon, and he has 15 more playoff points than anybody. If not, that spot is effectively reserved for Bell.

Tune in to NBC at 2:00 p.m. ET this Sunday, October 13 for the live broadcast of the Bank of America Roval 400 from the Charlotte Motor Speedway Roval. Kaulig Racing's A.J. Allmendinger won last year's race, but he is not the favorite to win it this year. Begin a free trial of FuboTV now and don't miss any of the action!