Heading into the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs, there were four drivers most commonly predicted to be eliminated in the opening round, and they were unsurprisingly the four drivers who entered the playoffs as the bottom four playoff drivers in the actual point standings.
Team Penske's Austin Cindric, Wood Brothers Racing's Josh Berry, Trackhouse Racing's Shane van Gisbergen, and Richard Childress Racing's Austin Dillon faced that uphill battle, even though two of them actually started the postseason above the round of 12 cut line due to the playoff points reset.
Berry's first-lap wreck in Sunday night's Cook Out Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway and Dillon's lackluster 23rd place finish kept them both below the cutoff.
Van Gisbergen dropped, though he is still above the cut line. However, he dropped from sixth to 12th place in the playoff picture following a 32nd place finish, and considering his lack of success on the ovals, it's hard to imagine him surviving the cutoff battle in the upcoming round of 16 races at World Wide Technology Raceway at Gateway and Bristol Motor Speedway.
Hendrick Motorsports' Alex Bowman, who had a disastrous race from the get-go and finished only one spot ahead of SVG in 31st, started the round of 16 below the cut line, due to his playoff points, and remained there.
The other driver who started below the cutoff, 23XI Racing's Tyler Reddick, vaulted himself up to fourth, so it's actually Team Penske's Joey Logano who is the top driver below the cut line, three points behind van Gisbergen, after starting just ahead of it.
But where is Cindric?
Surprisingly, Cindric could very well be the common "eliminated" pick who actually ends up advancing to the round of 12.
After a 12th place finish at Darlington, he is ninth in the playoff picture, 12 points above the cut line, and he won last year's race at Gateway. Even if not for teammate Ryan Blaney running out of fuel, a P2 finish would have been fully representative of Cindric's strong pace that day.
Cindric won the April race at Talladega Superspeedway, and had he not won, he'd have missed the playoffs, even with a 15th place finish in regular season points.
Crashing the round of 12 party is not the only thing on his mind. Talladega awaits in the round of 8, and Cindric is always a contender at superspeedways. Should he manage to work his way to the semifinal round, he might well be a Championship 4 dark horse.
It would be the exact kind of Cinderella run he needs to quiet those who have been speculating about a potential offseason departure from Team Penske following his father's firing from the IndyCar program back in May.
While SVG is the driver fans have circled to win at the Charlotte Motor Speedway Roval to get to the round of 8 if he should somehow manage to weather the storm in the round of 16 and get to the round of 12, perhaps fans should be watching Cindric.
Gateway is scheduled to host the Enjoy Illinois 300 this coming Sunday, September 7, and USA Network is set to provide live coverage beginning at 3:00 p.m. ET. Start a free trial of FuboTV and don't miss it!