When the 2024 Formula 1 season came to a close, Yuki Tsunoda and Liam Lawson were fighting for a promotion to the main Red Bull team, with Sergio Perez likely to get dropped. When the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix concluded, the general belief was that Tsunoda was ahead and he would be paired with Max Verstappen to open the 2025 season.
However, the seat went to Lawson. But after Lawson struggled and Tsunoda took over just three races into the season in the Japanese Grand Prix, the 25-year-old Japanese driver has also struggled throughout the season.
Tsunoda has shown glimpses of positive moments that alone may not be enough to keep him in his current seat. Laurent Mekies' arrival has provided a small boost as well, but it still keeps Tsunoda’s future in doubt.
Although Isack Hadjar was recently tipped to replace Tsunoda in 2026, the team have postponed their decision on the driver lineup.
Tsunoda can earn a new contract in one particular way
Post-summer break, Max Verstappen has narrowed the championship gap, now trailing Lando Norris by 36 points and Oscar Piastri by 35 after sitting 104 points out of the lead just five races ago. Despite slim odds, the four-time reigning world champion remains in contention.
However, there is still support for Verstappen to claim his fifth consecutive title. It will be a tough task to do on his own, and a string of great performances from Tsunoda could provide a mutual benefit. It would feed into his Dutch teammate’s title fight while also making a case for himself to not get dropped.
Some great qualifying results over the next four races from Tsunoda would put him in a great position to help Verstappen’s charge to the front. With both McLaren drivers also fighting each other, Tsunoda turning into a defender on track could have a significant influence on the standings.
We saw how well Sergio Perez defended during the 2021 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, and a similar performance from Tsunoda could yield the same result for Verstappen.
Such a performance might not only save Tsunoda’s career in Formula 1, but it could be enough to keep his seat at Red Bull, at least to start the 2026 season, despite having once been viewed as having no chance to return. That may not have been the case if Christian Horner were still team principal, but Mekies may prefer to keep him around for one more season.