The offseason between the 2025 and 2026 Formula 1 seasons has already reached the halfway point, and all eyes are on the season-opening Australian Grand Prix at Albert Park Circuit in early March, a Grand Prix which is set to kick off a new era of Formula 1 regulations.
With a new era looming, there is much uncertainty regarding what the pecking order might look like. During the ground effect era, Red Bull dominated for the first two and a half years, but McLaren took over the top spot for the final year and a half. This four-year stretch followed a run of eight consecutive constructor world championships for Mercedes to kick of the turbo hybrid era.
To open up the offseason, reigning world champion Lando Norris was the betting favorite. It didn't take long for four-time world champion Max Verstappen to take over as the new favorite. Now, however, it's neither the McLaren driver nor the Red Bull driver listed on top.
New F1 world championship favorite emerges for 2026
It's Mercedes' George Russell.
FanDuel Sportsbook lists Russell at +230 to win the 2026 world championship, ahead of Verstappen at +240 and Norris at +430. McLaren's Oscar Piastri and Aston Martin's Fernando Alonso are tied at +900, ahead of Mercedes' Kimi Antonelli at +1300.
Full odds can be found here and are always subject to change.
Amid discussions about the loophole in the new engine regulations being utilized by Mercedes and Red Bull, it makes sense to see Russell, who established himself as Mercedes' top driver over Antonelli in year one of the post-Lewis Hamilton era by being the only non-McLaren/Verstappen Grand Prix winner of the 2025 season, on top, with Verstappen lurking a lot closer behind than any of his rivals would ideally prefer.
This, coupled with rumblings of McLaren not being where they'd like to be ahead of the 2026 season, or certainly where they were in 2024 and 2025 relative to the rest of the pack, explains Norris' slight slide, and it could be what potentially opens up the door for Verstappen to ascend back to the top of the sport, especially after he closed out the 2025 season with three consecutive victories and 10 consecutive podium finishes.
He ultimately came from 104 points out of the lead – more than four full Grand Prix victories – to finish just two behind Norris.
Even during his 2024 world title-winning season, which was the first since 1983 to see a driver win with the third place team in the constructor standings, he never scored more than four consecutive podium finishes at any point.
In a full-season battle between Russell and Verstappen, odds are that Verstappen would win head-to-head; just ask Toto Wolff who he'd choose if he had to pick one of the two for his 2027 lineup (which, by the way, he still might).
However, it is worth noting that both of Russell's victories in 2025 came in races that saw him hold off Verstappen in P2. Had Verstappen won either of them, he would have won his fifth consecutive world title.
Of course, we shouldn't read too much into odds published in December and updated in January ahead of a whole new era due to begin in March. Lest we forget that Lewis Hamilton was favored to win the 2022 world championship four years ago at this time. Since then, he's scored a total of two Grand Prix victories and endured three winless seasons.
The Australian Grand Prix is scheduled to get the 2026 Formula 1 season underway on Sunday, March 8 from Albert Park Circuit.