After Red Bull opted to use Liam Lawson instead of Yuki Tsunoda as their second driver for the 2025 Formula 1 season, it seemed fairly certain that the Japanese driver would be dropped by the team once his contract expired at the end of the year.
With Honda set to partner with Aston Martin from 2026 onwards, it initially appeared that they would take their driver with them. But despite recent reports that Honda will have a say in driver lineups at Aston Martin, there is a chance that Tsunoda may not be a part of those discussions.
However, the quick replacement of Liam Lawson at Red Bull has essentially rejuvenated Tsunoda's stock. He has finally gotten the opportunity to drive for Red Bull in a seat which many believe should have been his to begin with.
Tsunoda has to push for a one-year extension
Tsunoda’s promotion did not specifically happen because Christian Horner and Helmut Marko wanted it to, as they had no other choice amid Lawson's struggles. Yet through all of that, the 24-year-old has still expressed interest to remain at Red Bull after his current contract ends.
Since his promotion, the odds of that happening have increased. Tsunoda has to go about it with a careful approach. Red Bull will presumably look to replace Tsunoda eventually, and a one-year extension is most strategic play for the fifth-year driver.
The 2026 season is set to be a contract year for 11 other drivers on the grid. What that means for Tsunoda is that consistent performance in 2025 and 2026 would instantly make him an attractive candidate for the other teams with an open position. Perhaps he could be a candidate for Aston Martin, Williams, or even Alpine heading into 2027.
In the event that Tsunoda were to leave the Red Bull family after this season, his only reasonable option for 2026 would be to join Cadillac. However, there is still risk involved there, given the uncertainty involved when it comes to signing with a brand-new team. Nevertheless, he must do everything he can to defer his “free agency” to the offseason after the 2026 season, rather than 2025.