As has been the case in each of the last 12 years since it was implemented, the inevitable complaints about NASCAR's playoff format have ramped up, specifically after Trackhouse Racing's Shane van Gisbergen all but solidified his spot in the postseason despite sitting 31st in the point standings.
Van Gisbergen won the first-ever Cup Series race in Mexico at Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez two weekends ago, and he did it in dominant fashion.
So far this season, 11 drivers have found victory lane, and eight of them have done so just once. Of those eight drivers, three are below where the provisional playoff cut line is actually positioned, meaning that, all other things being equal, they would be on the outside looking in had it not been for their victories.
NASCAR's playoff format is currently giving one drivrer a raw deal
Of course, two of them are actually inside the top 16 in the standings, meaning that if points alone determined the playoff field, they would indeed be in. Talladega Superspeedway winner Austin Cindric of Team Penske is 15th and Las Vegas Motor Speedway winner Josh Berry of Wood Brothers Racing is 16th.
The cut line is currently positioned between the 13th and 14th place drivers. Hendrick Motorsports' Alex Bowman is the 16th and final driver above the cut line, and he is 20 points to the good. The first driver below it is RFK Racing's Ryan Preece.
Sitting in 14th place, Preece is the only driver in the top 16 in points who is not in the provisional 16-driver playoff field.
Preece has experienced a career resurgence in his first season with RFK Racing following Stewart-Haas Racing's shutdown. In three seasons with JTG Daugherty Racing and two with Stewart-Haas Racing, he finished no higher than 23rd in the point standings, and had it not been for his Talladega disqualification from second back in April, he'd actually be in 11th, which would position him above the cutoff and Bowman below it.
Less than halfway into the 36-race season, he already has seven top 10 finishes; his previous career-high was five, and seven matches his total from his entire stint with Stewart-Haas Racing.
Given the fact that there have already been 11 race winners this season, the fact that six new winners have emerged in the eight most recent races, and the fact that there are still nine races remaining on the 26-race regular season schedule, it's likely that there will be more than one driver positioned in the top 16 in points who ends up missing the playoffs when it's all said and done.
Just look back at 2022, when there were 16 winners and Ryan Blaney was winless. He would have missed the playoffs from third place in the standings had race winner Kurt Busch not withdrawn due to injury. Even with Blaney in, Martin Truex Jr. still missed out on the playoffs, despite a fourth place finish in points.
Hendrick Motorsports' Chase Elliott, who is just two points out of the top three in the standings, is currently the highest positioned non-winner in fifth. Without a win, he finds himself 12th in the playoff picture, and while he may currently clear the cutoff by 160 points, that cut line can (and likely will) move further and further up, making even him far from safe.
Race number 18 on the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series schedule is considered a bit of a "wild card" race, that being this weekend's Quaker State 400 available at Walmart. Live coverage from Atlanta Motor Speedway is set to be provided by TNT Sports beginning at 7:00 p.m. ET on Saturday, June 28.