McLaren's Oscar Piastri took the lead of the Formula 1 world championship standings early in the 2025 season, and he led for much of the way. But following a recent decline in performance, coupled with more consistency from teammate Lando Norris, he finds himself 24 points out of first place.
In fact, he's no longer even alone in second. After being 104 points ahead of four-time reigning world champion Max Verstappen after the Dutch Grand Prix, he is now level with Verstappen.
There are 58 points on the table with two Grands Prix and one sprint race remaining on the schedule. With Lusail International Circuit set to host a sprint and the Qatar Grand Prix this weekend, that number is set to be reduced to 25 heading into the season-ending Abu Dhabi Grand Prix at Yas Marina Circuit.
Oscar Piastri facing F1 title elimination in Qatar
It means that Piastri, despite leading the standings for much of the year, is at risk of being eliminated entirely even before the lights go out in Abu Dhabi.
The tiebreaker still hasn't been decided between the three title contenders, with Norris and Piastri each owning seven wins and Verstappen owning six. But unless somebody outright passes Norris in victories, he would own the tiebreaker, since he also owns eight runner-up finishes. Verstappen has five while Piastri only has three.
Norris can clinch the tiebreaker this weekend by winning the 57-lap Grand Prix around the 16-turn, 3.343-mile (5.381-kilometer) road course in Lusail, Al Daayen, Qatar, in which case Verstappen and Piastri would need to remain with 24 points, rather than 25, heading into Abu Dhabi.
However, a Grand Prix win wouldn't actually guarantee Norris the world championship, even though he is 24 points ahead as things stand right now. He could technically go scoreless in the preceding sprint, in which case Verstappen or Piastri could still end up scoring at least 25 total points (same as Norris) throughout the weekend.
In any scenario, a Norris Grand Prix win would eliminate whoever finishes third in the sprint race or the Grand Prix (or both), if it's either Piastri or Verstappen (or both).
Piastri can only win the tiebreaker if he wins more races than Norris from now until the season ends. Verstappen can only win it if he wins both of the season's final two races.
All things considered, if Norris clinches the tiebreaker in Qatar, Piastri would need to be within 24 points to remain eligible to win this year's world championship heading into Abu Dhabi (as does Verstappen). If he doesn't, Piastri would still be in the fight at 25 points behind; Verstappen would still need to be within 24 if he doesn't win the Grand Prix, however.
Live coverage of both the Qatar sprint race and the Qatar Grand Prix itself from Lusail International Circuit is set to be provided by ESPN2. The sprint is set to be shown live starting at 8:55 a.m. ET on Saturday, November 29, and the Grand Prix is set to be shown live starting at 10:55 a.m. ET on Sunday, November 30. Begin a free trial of FuboTV now and catch all of the action from the penultimate race weekend of the 2025 Formula 1 season!