Formula 1: Quiet development could speed up Red Bull driver change

After their 1-2 finish in the Hungarian Grand Prix at the Hungaroring last Sunday, McLaren are now listed by FanDuel Sportsbook and DraftKings Sportsbook as the outright favorites to win the 2024 Formula 1 world constructor championship, ahead of two-time reigning champions Red Bull.

It marks the first time since early in the 2022 season, when Charles Leclerc and Ferrari got off to a red-hot start, that somebody other than Red Bull have been the favorites to win the title.

McLaren are listed at -130 (bet $130 to win $100) at FanDuel and -150 at DraftKings, while Red Bull are listed at -110 at FanDuel and +110 (bet $100 to win $110) at DraftKings.

It's been no secret that, since the Miami Grand Prix when Lando Norris got his first win, McLaren have had the fastest car on the grid, even after many predicted that the RB20 would be even more dominant than last year's RB19, which Max Verstappen drove to victory in 19 of the 22 races.

In the seven races that have been contested since Formula 1's trip to South Florida, Verstappen has still amassed more points than anybody with 126, but the McLaren duo of Norris and Oscar Piastri are both close behind. Piastri has actually scored more points than Norris (108-106), thanks to his win in Hungary.

Red Bull's Sergio Perez, who began the year with six straight top five finishes and four podium results, has not finished higher than seventh place during that stretch and has scored only 21 points.

That lack of production has resulted in McLaren closing the gap to Red Bull down to 51 points in the constructor standings. The Woking-based team, which haven't been crowned Formula 1 constructor champions since 1998, have outscored Red Bull in six of the seven most recent race weekends, including by a season-high 27 last Sunday alone.

Sergio Perez out at Red Bull?

There has been growing speculation that, even though the 34-year-old Mexican driver recently signed a two-year contract extension to remain with the Milton Keynes-based team through the 2026 season, he could be replaced during the upcoming summer break.

Before the Hungarian Grand Prix, he was said to have two races to effectively save his seat, and his crash during qualifying at the Hungaroring certainly didn't do much to help matters. The fact that his seventh place finish in Hungary was tied for his best in the last two and a half months is not a good sign.

I can guarantee that Helmut Marko and Christian Horner aren't sitting around making their decisions based on FanDuel and DraftKings odds.

But the fact is that this drastic change in odds indicates a growing belief that Red Bull's lead over McLaren may not be enough, given the different directions in which the two teams appear to be heading, and nothing we have seen since Miami has given us any reason to believe otherwise.

Though Red Bull no longer have the quickest car, Verstappen has still managed to extend his championship lead over that seven-race stretch, and despite incidents in two of the three most recent events, he is still third in points over that three-race stretch as well, even ahead of his closest championship challenger Norris.

So 21 points from Perez in seven races is simply unacceptable. The next closest Red Bull, Mercedes, Ferrari, or McLaren driver during that span is Leclerc with 64, and he even managed to win a race during it. Perez, on the other hand, is only barely ahead of Haas' Nico Hulkenberg and Aston Martin's Lance Stroll.

The 14th and final race before the four-week summer break is the Belgian Grand Prix, which is scheduled to take place at Circuit de Spa-Francorchamps this Sunday, July 28. ESPN is set to provide live coverage starting at 8:55 a.m. ET, so start a free trial of FuboTV and don't miss it!