IndyCar: Two Ganassi drivers risk losing their rides, but not who you'd expect

IndyCar's proposed charter system, which could go into effect as early as next year, would award 25 charters based on the 2023 entrant standings, with a maximum of three per team.

Field sizes would be capped at 27 cars, and all 25 charter entries would be locked into every race except for the Indy 500, where the field would still be capped at 33 cars – yes, still the "Fastest 33".

Following Andretti Global's downsize from four cars to three after the 2023 season, the only team with more than three full-time entries is Chip Ganassi Racing, which actually expanded from four to five cars for the 2024 season.

Though the shared No. 11 Honda finished in 14th place in the 2023 entrant standings, well high enough to justify receipt of a charter for 2025, should IndyCar indeed go that route, it was the team's fourth highest finishing entry. The proposed charter system limit is loosely based on that of the Leaders' Circle payments, which is capped at three per team and extends through the top 22 finishers.

Alex Palou's No. 10 Honda and Scott Dixon's No. 9 Honda swept the top two spots, and Marcus Ericsson's No. 8 Honda finished in sixth place. So the No. 10, No. 9, and No. 8 cars would be the three cars awarded charters for 2025. Rookie Linus Lundqvist now drives the No. 8 Honda.

Ganassi's No. 11 Honda, which is now driven full-time by Marcus Armstrong, and recently added No. 4 Honda, which is driven by rookie Kyffin Simpson, would not be.

Prema Racing are set to become IndyCar's 11th full-time team next year, and they are slated to add two cars. That would bring the full-time field to 29 entries, and it would set up weekly battles between two of Ganassi's cars and the two Prema cars to determine who races and who doesn't.

Given the advantages of holding one of the 25 charters vs. running an entry without one, it wouldn't make sense for Ganassi to continue to operate with two non-charter cars, even if they would be favored to beat the Italian newcomers on most weekends.

Could they theoretically put Palou and Dixon in the two non-charter cars?

From everything we know about the charter proposal thus far, it doesn't seem like there would be a strict rule against it.

But while having to knock off two drivers with eight IndyCar championships (possibly nine) under their belt would certainly make it even more challenging for Prema to compete in even a single IndyCar race in their debut season, it would also put Ganassi's two biggest championship threats at risk of not competing at all – every single weekend.

As the depth of the modern IndyCar field shows, this would not be a favorable solution for Ganassi; even a broken clock is right twice per day.

According to RACER.com's Marshall Pruett, this entire proposition could spell trouble for Armstrong and Lundqvist.

Both drivers have secured a podium finish in their first season as full-time drivers, with Lundqvist even securing a pole position, but neither one brings the funding that Simpson does.

Though Lundqvist drives the No. 8 Honda, Simpson would likely be the one given the third charter entry moving forward, due to the significant funding he brings from his father David's ties to primary sponsor Ridgeline Lubricants.

Simpson has finished no higher than 12th place in his rookie IndyCar season and sits down in 20th in the standings following a stretch of eight races during which he placed inside the top 20 only twice.

Armstrong and Lundqvist sit in 14th and 18th place, respectively. While it's not like either one has lit the world on fire in 2024, both have consistently outperformed their younger teammate whose Chip Ganassi Racing future appears to be fully secured, even amid a rumored 40% drop in the team's car count.

Only Andretti Global, Arrow McLaren, and Team Penske have locked down their three-car lineups for the 2025 season. All eight of the other teams still have seats to fill and additional questions to answer. Those questions start with the team that has won three of the four and four of the six most recent championships. Where, if anywhere, will Armstrong and Lundqvist factor in?