The NASCAR-like problem that's been slowly developing in Formula 1

The first half of the 2024 Formula 1 season has brought unprecedented success and parity that nobody expected. Following what was one of the most dominant seasons in Formula 1 history by Red Bull and Max Verstappen in 2023, it was easy to suggest that something similar would unfold this season.

While 2024 started off that way for the first five races, fans have since witnessed one of the tightest battles for supremacy at the front of the grid that the sport has ever seen.

Each weekend, there are four teams that enter with a shot at pole position and the win, with their ultimate chances all varying by track and condition.

In fact, there have been seven different winners this season, six of whom have won at some point in the nine most recent races. There have only been two repeat winners since the Miami Grand Prix, which was now nine races ago. It's the kind of parity that has eluded the sport for far too long and has rarely ever been seen.

While the battles at the front have been as close and unpredictable as ever, a few problems have recently emerged as a result.

Unfortunately, nearly every good thing comes with some sort of a consequence, especially in motorsport. During the recent Belgian Grand Prix race weekend, two of these issues were exposed in one major way.

First off, dirty air was a major concern throughout the race, perhaps more than it ever has been at Circuit de Spa-Francorchamps, and it was incredibly hard to overtake.

Lewis Hamilton had a massive pace advantage over George Russell in the final stint with fresh tires, only to completely stagnate once he got within 1.5 seconds of his Mercedes teammate. Verstappen was also much quicker than Lando Norris in the opening stages, and he couldn't even attempt to make a pass.

Of course, the shortening of the DRS zone down Kemmel Straight didn't help, but it was just last year when there were complaints that overtaking was too easy, which forced the unsuccessful change. Spa has normally been notorious for overtaking, so it really shows just how much of an effect dirty air has on things.

Then there's the bigger issue of the cars being too closely matched.

One of the best ways to mitigate the effects of dirty air and produce more overtaking is to have a pace offset between the faster attacking car and the slower defending car. You're never going to be able to overtake if you are matching the pace of the car in front, or only going slightly quicker. Factors such as a fresh tire advantage often help with this offset.

During the Belgian Grand Prix, Mercedes, McLaren, and Red Bull seemed to be on almost equal footing in terms of race pace, with Ferrari lagging just the slightest bit behind.

With everyone being virtually the same, track position was key in the end, as the lack of a significant pace differential did not allow for any opportunities for somebody to make a difference.

This is not to say that this race was bad, because it was quite the opposite. However, both of these factors took away from a Belgian Grand Prix that, for the first time in a while, was actually setting up for an intriguing, grandstand finish, when in reality, all we got was three cars close together with not much of a threat of an actual overtake.

On the other side of the world, NASCAR is experiencing a very similar problem.

When you think of two forms of motorsport that are similar to one another, NASCAR and Formula 1 aren't exactly two that come to mind; they couldn't be further apart, in regard to the cars, the drivers, the tracks and track locations, and even the fanbases.

However, when you talk about the on-track action, and the way the racing itself is being both produced and impacted by various factors, the results have actually been very similar.

There has been no shortage of coverage of the things that have gone wrong with NASCAR's Next Gen car with respect to the racing product since it made its debut in 2022.

Whether it's the lack of horsepower, the rear diffuser, the stiffness of the outer bodies, the increased mechanical grip, or the lack of tire wear, all of these factors have resulted in one thing: all of the cars being equal, more or less.

Denny Hamlin has talked about this exact issue to no end on his podcast, Actions Detrimental. While fans, drivers, and teams have all debated about how to lower the difficulty of overtaking, especially on road courses and short tracks, none of it matters if every car goes around the race track at the same speed.

This problem is much more pronounced in NASCAR. The Cup Series is a spec series, for the most part, whereas in Formula 1, all 10 teams have differing car concepts built within a set of boundaries. Even with how close the competition is right now, there are still differences.

Is there any way to fix this problem?

There comes a point when a particular set of regulations reaches its cap or its peak, meaning that with the set of rules in place at that given time, the engineers have all identified the best ways to make their cars go faster and have thus maxed out their machinery; they have reached the ceiling.

When you're put into a box and only given a certain amount of material and conditions with which to work, you can only do so much with it, and after a long while of working with it all, you can't go any further. Because NASCAR is largely a spec series with very little wiggle room for teams to get creative with engineering, this is the spot in which they now find themselves with the Next Gen car.

While Formula 1 is not there yet, it is definitely getting close. This is now the third year of the ground effect, cost cap regulations, an era that started with one team dominating over a spread-out pack that has now become, on occasion, the tightest in Formula 1 history, from top to bottom.

The only real way to fix it is to create a whole new set of regulations and force the teams to start from zero again, which is exactly what is set to happen in 2026.

The problem with that is that there is almost always one dominant team and driver who come out of the gates with a brilliant package, such as Mercedes and Lewis Hamilton in 2014. This produces another few years of dominance and spread-out grids before everybody else starts to figure things out.

It feels pretty greedy to be complaining about the quality of racing in Formula 1, given how well the competition is stacking up at the moment. It's very important to appreciate what we have while it's here, because come the new set of regulations, the four-way fight for supremacy at the top will likely be gone.

Given how most Formula 1 seasons have transpired during the hybrid era that started in 2014, it's a great problem to have right now.