NASCAR: The 'what-if' scenario Denny Hamlin needs to avoid

More than five months after the March NASCAR Cup Series race at Bristol Motor Speedway, not many were expecting a penalty announcement relating to that event.

But thanks to a self-reported Toyota infraction, Joe Gibbs Racing's Denny Hamlin was hit with multiple significant penalties ahead of the playoffs.

The race-winning engine in Hamlin's No. 11 Toyota from Bristol was mistakenly rebuilt by Toyota before NASCAR could tear it down and inspect it, which is a violation of Sections 14.7.1.E&F and 14.7.1.1.B&E of the NASCAR Rule Book.

Hamlin was docked 10 playoff points and 75 regular season points. With the regular season point penalty ultimately dropping him from fourth to seventh place in the standings, he was effectively docked 13 total playoff points, as he started the postseason with 15 playoff points instead of the 28 he would have had.

He would have had those 28 playoff points thanks to three regular season race wins (15), six regular season stage wins (6), and a fourth place regular season points finish (7). Instead, he got just four for a seventh place regular season points finish, and that resulting 25 playoff point total was further reduced to 15 due to the 10-point deduction.

To start the round of 12, Hamlin finds himself in sixth place in the standings, just seven points above the round of 8 cut line. If not for that penalty, he would be sitting in a tie for third, 20 points above the cutoff.

It is also well worth mentioning the fact that the three drivers who passed Hamlin due to his points penalty also gained one playoff point by moving up. Those drivers were teammate Christopher Bell, Hendrick Motorsports' William Byron, and Team Penske's Ryan Blaney.

So they all effectively got a 14-point boost over Hamlin due to the penalty, not just a 13-point boost.

If Hamlin were indeed in a third place tie in points to start the round of 12, he would be ahead of both Byron and Blaney. Instead, he trails both of them, in addition to Bell in second.

Considering the fact that we have seen drivers advance (or not advance) based on margins much smaller than 13 or 14 points, with some advancements even determined by tiebreakers, Hamlin could very well end up eliminated because of his own race win.

In fact, Hamlin himself entered this past weekend's round of 16 finale at Bristol sitting below the round of 12 cut line, which would not have been the case if not for his massive penalty.

But Hamlin did advance, and he can do himself a favor by winning to advance once again, thereby eliminating all discussions about points and playoff points as he continues to pursue his first championship.

He will certainly not want to look back on the 2024 season and think "what if?", should his Bristol penalty ultimately be the difference between advancing and not advancing – or perhaps even the difference between winning the title and not winning the title.

Tune in to USA Network this Sunday, September 29 for the live broadcast of the Hollywood Casino 400 presented by ESPN BET. Live coverage of the round of 12 opener from Kansas Speedway is scheduled to begin at 3:00 p.m. ET. Begin a free trial of FuboTV now and don't miss it!