NASCAR: Questionable championship change made before Talladega

A rough start to the round of 16 of the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series season playoffs resulted in Hendrick Motorsports' Kyle Larson losing his status as the betting favorite to win the championship at FanDuel Sportsbook.

First, Joe Gibbs Racing's Christopher Bell became a co-favorite, and then he took over from the driver of the No. 5 Chevrolet as the new outright favorite.

But Larson responded, closing out the round of 16 with the most dominant victory at Bristol Motor Speedway in decades. Following the points reset to start the round of 12, he was once again the points leader, and he was once again the outright championship favorite.

Yet after a single poor result at Kansas Speedway, he again finds himself with longer odds.

Early wall contact for Larson proved to be too much to overcome, and the May winner at the four-turn, 1.5-mile (2.414-kilometer) Kansas City, Kansas oval had to settle for 26th place. However, he is still well above the round of 8 cut line in fourth in the point standings.

With two "wild card" races at Talladega Superspeedway and the Charlotte Motor Speedway Roval set to wrap up the quarterfinal round and determine which eight drivers will be moving on, anything can happen. We saw Larson, then the reigning champion, eliminated in the round of 12 two years ago.

But shouldn't we have learned a lesson about Larson – not to overreact – after the round of 16?

Larson had been listed as the outright favorite at +400, ahead of Bell at +450. Now they are both listed at +450 as co-favorites, ahead of a pack of four drivers listed at +600.

That pack includes Joe Gibbs Racing's Denny Hamlin, reigning series champion Ryan Blaney of Team Penske, points leader William Byron of Hendrick Motorsports, and regular season champion Tyler Reddick of 23XI Racing.

+450 odds imply that Larson has less than a 1-in-5 shot to win the championship. Even with three poor results in four playoff races, he still sits in the top four in the point standings and has, for much of the season, been a consensus pick to reach the winner-take-all Championship 4 round at Phoenix Raceway next month.

And if he does manage to advance to the round of 8, he is guaranteed to start the semifinal round as the points leader, no matter what else happens in the round of 12.

Larson has 47 playoff points to his name this season. Next highest is Bell with 32. Even if Bell, who hasn't won since June, wins both of the remaining races in the round of 12, and sweeps the stages in each, that would only net him 14 more playoff points, putting him at 46.

So Larson is almost poised to become the outright favorite again one way or another, as long as he simply survives and advances after the races at Talladega and Charlotte. After this weekend, there are five races remaining on the schedule, and Larson has won at all five tracks at some point since joining Rick Hendrick's team in 2021.

One poor result at Kansas, which really didn't impact the playoff picture all that much to begin with, should not have resulted in Larson no longer being considered the outright favorite to win the title.

Full odds can be found here. Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

NBC is set to provide live coverage of the YellaWood 500 from Talladega Superspeedway starting at 2:00 p.m. ET this Sunday, October 6, so start a free trial of FuboTV now and don't miss it!