When a team has the best driver in Formula 1, picking up race wins and podium finishes despite another team dominating, it's easy to rest on laurels and hope that small changes will help tip the scales in a world championship battle.
That certainly feels how Red Bull are approaching the final year of the ground effect era, with tweaks being made to the RB21 throughout the year so far as they look to get Max Verstappen back on top to fight for his fifth straight world championship.
However, Red Bull's interest in getting Verstappen his fifth title could severely harm the team long-term if this is the approach they continue to follow once the new era begins in 2026.
Why Red Bull need to change
It's understandable that Red Bull want to help Verstappen as long as he is their driver. He has brought so much success to the Milton Keynes-based team and is still the best driver on the grid, meaning he can never be discounted, and the team still have that desire to win.
The issue, though, is that it's simply a matter of when, not if, Verstappen leaves the team in the near future. Whether that is after 2026, or when his contract officially expires in 2028, the departure of the Dutchman has effectively become a foregone conclusion.
When Verstappen leaves, Red Bull will be facing the daunting task of remaining a competitive team without the very best behind the wheel. Some quality drivers are still on the grid and would likely be interested in taking over as the number one driver in Milton Keynes, but that may be affected if the team fail to change how they develop their cars.
Look at the second seat. That is the true indicator of where Red Bull would be without Verstappen at the helm, should changes not be made as soon as possible.
In 2023, Red Bull had the most dominant car on the grid and, arguably, in Formula 1 history. Only one driver outside the team won a race that year, former Red Bull junior Carlos Sainz Jr. for Ferrari in Singapore, but even Sergio Perez struggled with the car at times as the development progressed.
This saw the Mexican's performance dovetail in 2024, leading to his release, while Liam Lawson couldn't get to grips with the car and Yuki Tsunoda has similarly struggled to maintain consistency.
Tsunoda has picked up points in just three Grands Prix (and one sprint) for Red Bull since replacing Lawson early this year, and he has not finished above P9 in those races (excluding the sprint).
Red Bull acknowledge that they have a difficult car, with a sharp front, difficulties in slow corners, and a struggle to maintain tires in warmer conditions. The team need to rethink how they develop a car for the new era, otherwise their future could firmly be in the range that Tsunoda is currently performing at: the midfield.
Sister team Racing Bulls, by contrast, have developed a far tamer car that is still quick and has seen Isack Hadjar be the second-best performing Red Bull driver this year, with points in five races and a high of P6 in Monaco, plus a P7 in the most recent Grand Prix in Spain.
Red Bull need to take a look at what Racing Bulls have been doing, because when Tsunoda began the year there, he could have placed in the top five in the opening two races of the season, had it not been for poor team strategy in Australia and China.
Tsunoda is quick, and when given an agreeable car, he has shown that he can compete for good points, like Hadjar is doing now.
If Red Bull do not look at the comparative performances of their second driver(s) and realize that a serious change needs to be made, moving away from a Verstappen-centric approach, then they are dooming themselves to drop down the pecking order and sit in the midfield when he inevitably leaves.
It is a similar situation to Aston Martin, which began 2023 in strong form, competing with Red Bull, but fell off and have slipped further and further away as development has fallen away from them. It's not something Christian Horner, especially, can afford.
Creating a car that would be easier for more people to drive could help guard against the future loss of Verstappen, helping whoever is brought in down the road to settle in quicker and be able to hit the ground running, rather than having them fight a difficult car and suffer serious confidence issues.
Red Bull need to protect their future, even if it comes at a cost to their present, as the present will not last forever.