The "win and in" format is one of the most criticized aspects of the modern NASCAR Cup Series playoffs, and that criticism often ramps up whenever a driver from far below the cut line finds victory lane.
That's exactly what happened on Sunday, when Trackhouse Racing's Shane van Gisbergen, sitting 33rd in points with no top five finishes through the 2025 season's first 15 races, won the Viva Mexico 250 at Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez.
Van Gisbergen is now 30th in the point standings, yet he finds himself above every driver who hasn't yet won this season, including the driver as high as fourth in points, in the provisional playoff picture.
However, he is not mathematically locked into the playoffs yet.
Shane van Gisbergen not locked into NASCAR playoffs
That's right; the so-called "win and in" format, at its core, is not truly a "win and in" format.
Van Gisbergen is one of 10 drivers to find victory lane this year, and there are still 10 races remaining on the 26-race regular season calendar. With nine race winners (among current full-time drivers) from last year having not yet won in 2025, there is still a very real possibility that the regular season concludes with more than 16 different winners.
And the playoff format does not expand if that happens; it's locked in at 16 drivers, period.
Officially, the 16 playoff spots go to the regular season champion and the multi-race winners. Remaining spots are filled by single-race winners. If there aren't enough, the highest non-winners on points get in.
But what's important in this case is what happens if there are more single-race winners than remaining available spots. In that case, points become the tiebreaker to determine which single-race winners make it into the four-round, 10-race playoffs, and which don't.
Three drivers have won multiple races this year and are thus locked into the playoffs. Those drivers, Joe Gibbs Racing teammates Christopher Bell and Denny Hamlin and Hendrick Motorsports' Kyle Larson, have all won three races.
Seven others have only won once, and van Gisbergen is in a distant last place among them in the point standings.
In order, they are Hendrick Motorsports' William Byron (first place in the standings), Team Penske's Ryan Blaney (seventh), Trackhouse Racing's Ross Chastain (eighth), Team Penske's Joey Logano (ninth), Team Penske's Austin Cindric (15th), Wood Brothers Racing's Josh Berry (19th), and van Gisbergen (30th).
Van Gisbergen is nowhere close to Berry, sitting 78 points behind, and while anything can happen, the fact that he has placed no higher than 14th place in an oval race pretty much signifies that he is in no position to pass Berry (or any other race winner) on points this year.
Van Gisbergen is poised to finish last in the point standings among winners, meaning that if the series does end up seeing more than 16 different winners before the regular season ends, he still might miss the playoffs.
The easiest way for him to avoid that fate isn't necessarily to improve on ovals or work his way up the point standings; it's to win again.
Unlike winning once, winning twice does indeed lock a driver into the playoffs, regardless of points position. And with three road/street course races remaining on the regular season calendar, don't be at all surprised if van Gisbergen manages to pull it off, especially with just how dominant he was south of the border.
Remaining road and street courses on the 2025 regular season schedule include the Chicago Street Course (Sunday, July 6), Sonoma Raceway (Sunday, July 13), and Watkins Glen International (Sunday, August 10). Van Gisbergen won in Chicago in 2023, and he was leading on the final lap at Watkins Glen last year.
This coming Sunday's race is another oval race, that being the Great American Getaway 400 presented by VISITPA. This race is set to be shown live on Amazon Prime Video from Pocono Raceway beginning at 2:00 p.m. ET, marking the end of Prime's first-ever five-race portion of a NASCAR Cup Series broadcast schedule.