After years of speculation about a move to Formula 1, the ball has finally started to roll for Colton Herta. The IndyCar driver was recently announced as Cadillac’s test driver heading into next season, with the expectation that he will take over from either Valtteri Bottas or Sergio Perez once a seat becomes vacant.
With Herta still in need of some FIA Super Licence points to make the move to Formula 1, he is set to make the move from IndyCar to an FIA feeder series in 2026. Cadillac intend to develop him in Formula 2 next season, allowing him to learn the tracks and meet the Super Licence points requirement.
The American driver is following a rather rare trajectory in terms of his motorsport career, as most drivers have gone from Formula 1 to IndyCar, and not the other way around.
Considering how hard this move has been pushed for Herta for the past four-plus years, there are valid concerns over his potential for success after his American predecessor struggled mightily.
A repeat of Logan Sargeant?
Herta has been linked to a seat in Formula 1 for several years now; he was primarily considered for a drive at Alfa Romeo in 2022 and AlphaTauri in 2023. With the 25-year-old’s name having been mentioned within the walls of F1 for quite some time now, there is a level of expectation when it comes to how he will perform if he lands a seat.
However, a big concern is whether he will be forced in after only one year of Formula 2. This is a unique challenge that he may not be ready for, and even after nine IndyCar wins and a year in Formula 2, he still might not impress in the way Cadillac had hoped.
There is an additional concern with potentially forcing another American driver onto the grid without the necessary preparation, given what happened with Logan Sargeant.
Though Sargeant did not come from IndyCar, he was someone who was rushed into a seat at Williams after just one season of Formula 2 himself, and an impressive season at that.
The premature entrance to the sport turned out terribly for Sargeant, who either found himself against the wall or toward the back. Through 36 Grands Prix, the American had six retirements and only one points finish before being dropped before the 2024 season concluded.
Herta’s fate could end up being the same if Cadillac advance him too quickly through the ranks for an F1 seat. With Bottas and Perez said to be under contract for multiple years, the smart move would be for Herta to replace one of them no sooner than 2028.
This can surely turn out to be a great success story, but Cadillac must manage Herta’s development very carefully. The team should not be afraid to leave him in Formula 2 for multiple seasons, while also giving him the regular F1 test driver duties. Cadillac saw the mistake that was made with Sargeant and should know how to avoid that.