Tyler Reddick was not considered among the favorites to win the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series season-opening Daytona 500 at Daytona International Speedway, a track where he had never previously won. He won anyway.
The driver of the No. 45 Toyota was not considered among the favorites to win the Autotrader 400 at EchoPark Speedway (Atlanta Motor Speedway), another track where he had never previously won. He won anyway, becoming the first driver since Matt Kenseth to win back-to-back races to start a season since 2009.
And he was not considered among the favorites to win the DuraMAX Texas Grand Prix at Circuit of the Americas (COTA), a track where he had indeed won before, but not on this year's layout. He won anyway, ending Shane van Gisbergen's five-race road and street course winning streak to become the first driver in the 78-year history of the Cup Series to reel off three straight wins to start the season.
Reddick isn't favored to win at Phoenix Raceway, either, and it sure feels like we've seen this story before.
Reddick is listed by DraftKings Sportsbook as the sixth favorite to win this Sunday afternoon's 312-lap Straight Talk Wireless 500 at the four-turn, 1.022-mile (1.645-kilometer) Avondale, Arizona oval. His odds are +1100.
He's behind Team Penske's Ryan Blaney (+550), Joe Gibbs Racing's Denny Hamlin (+550), Hendrick Motorsports' Kyle Larson (+650), Joe Gibbs Racing's Christopher Bell (+650), and Hendrick Motorsports' William Byron (+750), all former Phoenix winners.
Bell and Blaney won the 2025 races at Phoenix, although Hamlin was in position to win late in the November season finale before a controversial caution flag with just under three laps remaining. Bell's March victory came after he had just won back-to-back races at Atlanta and COTA as well, giving him three in a row.
We get it. Reddick isn't going to go 36 for 36 this year. At some point, he is going to be beaten, and all things considered, unless he's a prohibitive favorite, it's always more likely than not to happen in the "next race".
Yet the fact that he still isn't considered among the top tier of Cup Series drivers is a bit mind boggling. Sure, he hasn't yet won at Phoenix, but his 11 wins have come on 11 different track layouts. He has two third place finishes at Phoenix, is a former stage winner, and has scored stage points in both stages in seven of his 12 Phoenix starts, including four of his first six with 23XI Racing.
About the only thing we can use against him is the fact that he's only led laps in two of those races. But for a guy who only needed to lead the final lap to win the Daytona 500, and who rallied in overtime to win at Atlanta without a front right fender, riding the hot hand seems like a slightly more logical play than simply box score scouting from the past six years.
Especially since, over a stretch of 15 days, he's already matched his career-high single-season win tally.
Full Phoenix race odds can be found here and are always subject to change.
The Straight Talk Wireless 500 is set to be shown live on Fox Sports 1 from Phoenix Raceway starting at 3:30 p.m. ET this Sunday, March 8. Start a free trial of FuboTV today and catch all of the action!