Team Penske's Ryan Blaney was the only driver in the round of 8 who had never won at Phoenix Raceway, yet he was widely believed to be the one driver nobody wanted to face at Phoenix if he got to the Championship 4.
Hendrick Motorsports' William Byron kept him out of the championship round by winning at Martinsville Speedway. But lo and behold, Blaney ended up winning at Phoenix following a late caution and a two-lap overtime shootout.
Had he done it in 2024, when he was beaten by teammate Joey Logano, he'd have become the first back-to-back champion since Jimmie Johnson won five in a row from 2006 to 2010.
It didn't take long until after the dust settled and Hendrick Motorsports' Kyle Larson was crowned champion for a second time for the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series championship odds to be posted by BetMGM.
But in 2026, the season finale is not set to be run at Phoenix. It is set to return to Homestead-Miami Speedway for the first time since 2019, and Blaney is not the favorite to win the title.
In fact, he isn't either one of the two co-favorites.
Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin favored to win 2026 NASCAR Cup Series championship
Larson and Hamlin are both listed at +500 after Larson benefited from the late caution at Phoenix, where Hamlin appeared to be well on his way to winning his first career championship. It's no surprise to see those two drivers listed as co-favorites.
Blaney is listed in a three-way tie at +600, along with Hendrick Motorsports' William Byron and Joe Gibbs Racing's Christopher Bell. If not for his late tire failure at Phoenix, Byron would have led all drivers in total points scored in 2025, and Bell actually did lead all drivers in points scored throughout the year if you exclude stages and only include race results.
Trackhouse Racing rookie Connor Zilisch is somewhat surprisingly listed in a three-way tie at +1000. He is tied with Hendrick Motorsports' Chase Elliott, who was one of the sport's most consistent drivers in 2025, and Chase Briscoe, who joined Larson, Hamlin, and Byron in the Championship 4 in only his first year with Joe Gibbs Racing.
What is particularly intriguing about this early listing is the fact that nobody even knows what the playoff format, if there even ends up being one, will look like in 2026. The Championship 4 format, which was introduced in 2014, is unlikely to return next year.
Full NASCAR Cup Series championship odds can be found here and are always subject to change.
On one hand, bet at your own risk, because it's clear that certain formats play to the advantages of certain drivers. On another, you can probably find some good value with some of these odds, because depending on which format ends up being used, they could shift even before the 2026 season begins.
The 2026 NASCAR Cup Series season is scheduled to begin on Sunday, February 15 with the 68th running of the Daytona 500. Fox is set to provide live coverage of the "Great American Race" from Daytona International Speedway.