Coming into the 2026 Formula 1 season, the general expectation was that Williams could become a contending team with a strong Mercedes engine and a significant amount of effort invested in the FW48. They started developing their car for 2026 nearly two years ago, and they were one of the first teams to do so.
However, things have started terribly for James Vowles, as the team were forced to skip the entirety of pre-season testing in Barcelona. While the team boss has confirmed that the plan is for the FW48 to be out on track in Bahrain, rumors have suggested that struggles passing the FIA’s crash test led to the team’s absence in Spain.
Vowles has also confirmed the team’s lack of knowledge about the FW48’s weight. The belief is that Williams will start the season with an overweight car, similar to Alpine when they endured a disastrous start to 2024. As a result, chances are they will start as a mid-table team at best.
Williams' risks are still high
Williams are already in a spot where they will have minimal data compared to every other team on the grid. Their run plan and testing strategy will be different when they get around to running in Bahrain, and being behind schedule will definitely bleed over into the season’s first race in Australia just over a month from now.
Considering the new era of regulations and the number of unknowns still pending, the gaps between teams could be larger than they were compared to the gaps over the past few seasons.
With Williams starting behind the other 10 teams, those gaps could be multiple seconds, rather than tenths, between themselves and the rest of the grid during the first few races.
The deficit could easily be close to what it was for the Grove-based team at the end of the previous decade, when scoring a single point was such a struggle. Vowles has already confirmed that starting the season well above minimum weight will lead to an aggressive program heading into the European swing.
Considering the team’s ambitions for this set of regulations and beyond, starting behind everyone else could easily lead to a B-spec upgrade package at some point before the summer break. This is all highly speculative, as we have yet to see the FW48 on the track, and a better idea won't be known until pre-season testing in Bahrain gets underway next week.