NASCAR's Chase is more hype than product

Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

I’m currently finishing up my senior year at Mercer University’s college of nursing. If you’ve heard about Mercer it’s probably because we knocked the Duke University Blue Devils out of the NCAA tournament this spring.

It was thrilling to actually be able to say, “We,” beat Duke as we were at the center of a national sports spotlight for 24 hours. That’s the sort of atmosphere that NASCAR disparately needs to create with it’s playoff system and it won’t happen. Despite commercials hyping the tension, stakes, and “Anything could happen,” potential of “The Chase,” NASCAR’s championship will probably finish a by-the numbers run to the finale that will see one of the top three drivers in the points going in win the trophy.

Obviously tying to gin up interest in it’s championship Chase NASCAR has stolen a page for college sports, but apparently doesn’t realize that NASCAR racing is entirely different from stick-and-ball sports. What made the Mercer-Duke matchup so compelling was the entirely different makeup of two teams that hadn’t played each other in twenty years. Mercer was loaded up with seniors who had played together for four or five years. Duke was laden down with NBA level talent doing one-and-done seasons. Duke had the better talent Mercer had the better team. None of that applies to NASCAR.

In NASCAR the same 40ish drivers compete on the same tracks every week. Every driver, every team, is a known quality. Each team goes into “The Chase” knowing what it has, and what the rest of the field has. There will be no surprises. I watched a commercial that explained what will happen, and ya know what’s going to happen? Exactly what’s happened all season long, the teams that have been up front all season long will remain up front while the teams at the bottom will remain at the bottom.

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NASCAR has been more static front to back than any major motorsport over the past 10 years. Over the past 10 years four drivers from three teams have won NASCAR’s championship. Even with Sebastian Vettel’s stunning four-year streak five drivers from four teams have won championships in F-1. Indycar has been even more competitive with eight drivers taking the championship over the same period of time.

Despite all the changes and manufactured hype this year’s chase will play out in a similarly predictable fashion. It’s almost a lock that either Brad Keselowski, Jeff Gordon, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Kevin Harvick, or Joey Logano will win the championship. It’s also equally likely that the first ones eliminated will be Aric Almirola, A.J. Allmendinger, Ryan Newman and Greg Biffle will be the first four drivers eliminated. The days of a Harry Gant emerging from the midfield to win four-straight races in September are twenty-years gone. While there may be some shuffling, the final Chase standings will look very similar to how they started.

I like A.J. Allmendinger, but he’s no Mercer. I’ve been a fan of Allmendinger since his Champ Car days, but he’s only recorded four top-ten finishes all season long. It’s not like he’s an underdog or he’s been sandbagging all season long. The best he can hope for is to finish 12^th or better, and will likely finish “The Chase,” close to where he starts.

One of the top three drivers going into the chase will win the chase. Everything else is just hype from a sport afraid the world is forgetting about it.

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NASCAR’s Chase Is More Hype Than It Is Product

By M. David | Sep 12, 2014