Statistically speaking: a look at Dover International Speedway

Sunday’s AAA 400 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series race at Dover (Del.) International Speedway will be the first-ever elimination race in the history of the Chase for the Sprint Cup. Under the new Chase format, four drivers will be eliminated from championship contention, as 12 drivers advance to the second three-race round.

Team Penske drivers Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano are guaranteed advancement to the second round by virtue of wins in the first two Chase races. The continued championship hopes of the other drivers in the top-seven of the points standings are also fairly safe, to varying degrees.

But there’s a logjam, of sorts, from eighth on down to 16th. Those nine drivers are separated by only 12 points between Matt Kenseth and Carl Edwards, tied for eighth, and Aric Almirola in the Chase basement of 16th. A Chase win would guarantee advancement; without a win, these drivers’ mission is to make sure they’re not in the bottom four of the Chase standings among drivers without Chase wins.

Jimmie Johnson is the most successful driver at Dover, with nine trips to the track’s victory lane. But Johnson’s among the drivers who are fairly safe. There are several drivers in the Chase danger zone, though, who have past Dover wins to their credit.

Here’s a statistical look at the Chase drivers’ career performances at Dover, along with their stats for the 2014 season, so far:

1 – Brad Keselowski (No. 2 Team Penske Ford)

· Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 104.1

2014 Rundown

· Five wins, 12 top fives, 15 top 10s; five poles

· Average finish of 12.8

· Led 22 races for 1,418 laps

Dover International Speedway Outlook:

· One win, three top fives, three top 10s; one pole

· Average finish of 14.4 in nine races

· Average Running Position of 13.8, 10th-best

· Driver Rating of 87.9, 11th-best

· Average Green Flag Speed of 143.620 mph, 11th-fastest

2 – Joey Logano (No. 22 Team Penske Ford)

· Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 106.8

2014 Rundown

· Four wins, 12 top fives, 17 top 10s; one pole

· Average finish of 12.5

· Led 19 races for 794 laps

Dover International Speedway Outlook:

· Two top fives, seven top 10s

· Average finish of 14.7 in 11 races

· Average Running Position of 17.0, 17th-best

· Driver Rating of 81.3, 17th-best

3 – Kevin Harvick (No. 4 Stewart-Haas Racing Chevrolet)

· Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 108.4

2014 Rundown

· Two wins, 10 top fives, 15 top 10s; six poles

· Average finish of 14.0

· Led 20 races for 1,369 laps

Dover International Speedway Outlook:

· Three top fives, 12 top 10s

· Average finish of 15.3 in 27 races

· Average Running Position of 15.8, 14th-best

· Driver Rating of 84.8, 14th-best

· 831 Green Flag Passes, second-most

· 4,556 Laps in the Top 15 (59.9%), ninth-most

· 393 Quality Passes, eighth-most

4 – Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet)

· Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 100.1

2014 Rundown

· Three wins, nine top fives, 17 top 10s; one pole

· Average finish of 13.8

· Led 15 races for 1,035 laps

Dover International Speedway Outlook:

· Nine wins, 13 top fives, 18 top 10s; three poles

· Average finish of 8.4 in 25 races

· Series-best Average Running Position of 6.6

· Series-best Driver Rating of 122.5

· Series-high 1,069 Fastest Laps Run

· Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 144.536 mph

· Series-high 6,661 Laps in the Top 15 (87.6%)

· 387 Quality Passes, 11th-most

5 – Kyle Busch (No. 18 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota)

· Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 90.0

2014 Rundown

· One win, six top fives, 11 top 10s; two poles

· Average finish of 17.4

· Led 13 races for 411 laps

Dover International Speedway Outlook:

· Two wins, nine top fives, 12 top 10s

· Average finish of 14.4 in 19 races

· Average Running Position of 11.8, fifth-best

· Driver Rating of 105.3, third-best

· 413 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most

· Average Green Flag Speed of 144.166 mph, third-fastest

6 – Dale Earnhardt Jr. (No. 88 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet)

· Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 98.2

2014 Rundown

· Three wins, 11 top fives, 17 top 10s

· Average finish of 10.8

· Led 12 races for 220 laps

Dover International Speedway Outlook:

· One win, six top fives, 11 top 10s; one pole

· Average finish of 16.2 in 29 races

· Average Running Position of 17.4, 18th-best

· Driver Rating of 82.5, 16th-best

· 232 Fastest Laps Run, 10th-most

· 748 Green Flag Passes, 10th-most

· Average Green Flag Speed of 143.547 mph, 12th-fastest

7 – Jeff Gordon (No. 24 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet)

· Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 109.5

2014 Rundown

· Three wins, 10 top fives, 18 top 10s; two poles

· Average finish of 10.3

· Led 19 races for 571 laps

Dover International Speedway Outlook:

· Four wins, 17 top fives, 24 top 10s; four poles

· Average finish of 11.7 in 43 races

· Average Running Position of 12.1, sixth-best

· Driver Rating of 94.5, sixth-best

· 289 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-most

· 783 Green Flag Passes, eighth-most

· Average Green Flag Speed of 143.994 mph, fourth-fastest

· 5,815 Laps in the Top 15 (76.5%), third-most

· Series-high 521 Quality Passes

8 – Matt Kenseth (No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota)

· Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 93.0

2014 Rundown

· 10 top fives, 17 top 10s; one pole

· Average finish of 14.1

· Led 16 races for 465 laps

Dover International Speedway Outlook:

· Two wins, 14 top fives, 20 top 10s; one pole

· Average finish of 13.0 in 31 races

· Average Running Position of 8.8, second-best

· Driver Rating of 108.3, second-best

· 461 Fastest Laps Run, third-most

· 726 Green Flag Passes, 12th-most

· Average Green Flag Speed of 144.261 mph, second-fastest

· 6,224 Laps in the Top 15 (81.9%), second-most

9 – Carl Edwards (No. 99 Roush Fenway Racing Ford)

· Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 82.4

2014 Rundown

· Two wins, six top fives, 11 top 10s

· Average finish of 15.0

· Led 9 races for 133 laps

Dover International Speedway Outlook:

· One win, eight top fives, 12 top 10s

· Average finish of 10.2 in 20 races

· Average Running Position of 10.8, third-best

· Driver Rating of 100.0, fourth-best

· 491 Fastest Laps Run, second-most

· 786 Green Flag Passes, sixth-most

· Average Green Flag Speed of 143.927 mph, sixth-fastest

· 5,374 Laps in the Top 15 (70.7%), sixth-most

· 519 Quality Passes, second-most

10 – A.J. Allmendinger (No. 47 JTG-Daugherty Racing Chevrolet)

· Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 70.4

2014 Rundown

· One win, two top fives, four top 10s

· Average finish of 20.6

· Led 5 races for 68 laps

Dover International Speedway Outlook:

· Three top 10s

· Average finish of 22.8 in 13 races

· Average Running Position of 21.7, 27th-best

· Driver Rating of 75.4, 21st-best

11 – Kasey Kahne (No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet)

· Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 88.6

2014 Rundown

· One win, three top fives, 10 top 10s

· Average finish of 16.4

· Led 10 races for 204 laps

Dover International Speedway Outlook:

· One top five, five top 10s

· Average finish of 21.0 in 21 races

· Average Running Position of 16.5, 16th-best

· Driver Rating of 80.4, 18th-best

· 311 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-most

· 792 Green Flag Passes, fifth-most

· 4,101 Laps in the Top 15 (53.9%), 12th-most

12 – Ryan Newman (No. 31 Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet)

· Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 84.9

2014 Rundown

· Two top fives, 10 top 10s

· Average finish of 14.3

· Led 4 races for 24 laps

Dover International Speedway Outlook:

· Three wins, six top fives, 12 top 10s; four poles

· Average finish of 13.6 in 25 races

· Average Running Position of 12.8, eighth-best

· Driver Rating of 88.1, 10th-best

· 4,978 Laps in the Top 15 (65.5%), seventh-most

· 375 Quality Passes, 12th-most

13 – Denny Hamlin (No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota)

· Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 90.4

2014 Rundown

· One win, six top fives, 12 top 10s; two poles

· Average finish of 15.7

· Led 12 races for 195 laps

Dover International Speedway Outlook:

· Three top fives, six top 10s; two poles

· Average finish of 19.6 in 17 races

· Average Running Position of 15.8, 15th-best

· Driver Rating of 83.3, 15th-best

14 – Greg Biffle (No. 16 Roush Fenway Racing Ford)

· Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 79.8

2014 Rundown

· Three top fives, 10 top 10s

· Average finish of 15.6

· Led 6 races for 109 laps

Dover International Speedway Outlook:

· Two wins, six top fives, 11 top 10s; one pole

· Average finish of 13.4 in 24 races

· Average Running Position of 11.8, fourth-best

· Driver Rating of 98.9, fifth-best

· 434 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most

· 786 Green Flag Passes, sixth-most

· Average Green Flag Speed of 143.959 mph, fifth-fastest

· 5,497 Laps in the Top 15 (72.3%), fifth-most

· 505 Quality Passes, third-most

15 – Kurt Busch (No. 41 Stewart-Haas Racing Chevrolet)

· Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 86.7

2014 Rundown

· One win, six top fives, eight top 10s

· Average finish of 19.4

· Led 11 races for 181 laps

Dover International Speedway Outlook:

· One win, six top fives, eight top 10s

· Average finish of 18.2 in 28 races

· Average Running Position of 13.4, ninth-best

· Driver Rating of 91.6, eighth-best

· 292 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-most

· 816 Green Flag Passes, fourth-most

· Average Green Flag Speed of 143.741 mph, ninth-fastest

· 4,415 Laps in the Top 15 (58.1%), 10th-most

· 415 Quality Passes, sixth-most

16 – Aric Almirola (No. 43 Richard Petty Motorsports Ford)

· Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 74.1

2014 Rundown

· One win, two top fives, seven top 10s

· Average finish of 20.4

· Led 5 races for 23 laps

Dover International Speedway Outlook:

· One top 10

· Average finish of 15.4 in five races

· Average Running Position of 17.7, 20th-best

· Driver Rating of 77.2, 20th-best

The 16 Challengers at Dover International Speedway

* – Based on last 19 races at Dover International Speedway.

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