Jimmie Johnson And His ‘Fall From Grace’
Mike DiNovo-USA TODAY Sports
This past weekend’s AAA 400 at Dover International Raceway saw one of the biggest surprises in recent memory in The Chase as Jimmie Johnson failed to advance from the Challenger round to the Contender round.
Going into the Dover event, Johnson sat what many believed was a very comfortable position in the standings. He was fifth in the Chase standings with a 27-point margin over 13th. Add to that was the fact that Dover has arguably been Johnson’s best track on the circuit. In 27 starts, Johnson has totaled 10 wins, 14 top 5s, 19 top 10s, averaged a 7.9 finish and led an astounding 2,999 laps at the Monster Mile.
Unfortunately on Sunday Johnson and his Lowe’s team were the victim of a mechanical failure, a broken rear axle seal that forced the 48 car to the garage area just after the 100-lap mark in the race.
Failures like this were rare during Johnson’s run of six Cup titles between 2006 through 2013. In the 50 Chase races between 2006 to 2010, Johnson won 13 times, had an average finish of 10.4 and only had one DNF which came in 2006 at the Talladega race. Since 2011, Johnson has won only six races, had an average finish of 12.8 and while he only has two DNFs during this period, mechanical failures and bad luck have been far more common.
Witness the 2014 Chase where Johnson had finishes of 40th, 17th, 24th, 32nd and 39th.
In the first two races of the 2015 Chase, Johnson had finishes of 11th at Chicagoland and 6th at New Hampshire. While those aren’t necessarily bad finishes, the overall performance of the 48 team and Hendrick Motorsports in general has seemed to be off in the second half of the year. Since the July race at Daytona (12 races), Johnson has managed 1 top five, 6 top 10s, had an average finish of 15.9 and has failed to lead a single lap.
Mandatory Credit: Andrew Weber-USA TODAY Sports
Given Johnson’s sterling track record, particularly during the Chase, these numbers are quite astonishing. However as mentioned before, it seems as though all four of the Hendrick Motorsports teams have fell a step behind the likes of the Stewart-Haas, Joe Gibbs and Roger Penske camps as the season as progressed. What should be worrying to the HMS teams is the performance and speed of Kevin Harvick’s car. Stewart-Haas Racing gets their chassis from Hendrick Motorsports yet Harvick and Kurt Busch’s teams have constantly outpaced Johnson and his teammates, particularly in the second half of the season.
There is zero argument that both Johnson and his crew chief, Chad Knaus are two of the greatest all-time in NASCAR history in their roles as driver and crew chief. No driver/crew chief tandem in NASCAR’s modern history has the pedigree the 48 combination bolsters. However, in racing just as in life nothing good lasts forever. Would a change at crew chief benefit Johnson and his team? Is it possible that Knaus has fallen behind the times and doesn’t have the tools necessary to compete for a championship? Given the (over)competitive nature of Knaus, it’s doubtful but still it’s puzzling how the 4 team has been the best car every week the past two seasons while the gelled 48 team has struggled to lead laps and finish in the top five.
Johnson and Knaus have seven races left to somewhat salvage what’s both likely feel is a failed 2015 season. Though it’s doubtful they need motivation to win races and run up front, the fact that they now play the role of spoiler for the Chase and the fact that they’re a bit of an underdog could entice the team to take more chances. Add to that the fact that they don’t have the pressure of competing for the championship. The 48 team is still one of the best in NASCAR and in spite of their recent lackluster performance, a win or two (or three) isn’t out of the realm of possibility as the season comes to a close.