2016 could be a season for McLaren defined by their failures or they could potentially shake things up in F1 if they can turn their fortunes around.
If McLaren’s recent performance at the Paul Ricard wet weather test are anything to go by, the team’s chances of shaking up 2016 aren’t looking great.
However, the McLaren we saw in France was an echo of 2015, the teams having been forced to use only last year’s technical components and chassis.
As such, as Jonathan Noble of Motorsport.com puts it, all the issues we saw McLaren face over the test were merely a “legacy of (the team’s) difficult campaign last year”.
So a McLaren revival, for now anyway, is still on the table.
Whether they can be a championship contender or not, well, we’ll just have to wait for the lights to go out in Melbourne to find out.
Until then though, it’s safe to assume that McLaren/Honda are doing all they can to create a competitive racer. And if they somehow manage to monumentally turn their form around over the winter, the fans will have a show on their hands.
We already know that Ferrari are hot on the heels of Mercedes, the prancing horse outfit hoping to be on equal footing with the German squad come the beginning of the 2016 championship season.
But if McLaren show up ‘Down Under’ with a race package to rival Mercedes and Ferrari, we may have a three-horse race on our hands, possibly the first since 2010, which saw Red Bull, Ferrari and McLaren themselves battling it out for the Driver’s Championship until the final race.
This is all speculation as McLaren have done nothing as yet to show that their Honda engine has improved at all. But the idea of another championship competitor, when we have only had one for the past two years, is an exciting thought.
Of course, why we are speculating over the prospect of a McLaren comeback, we shouldn’t ignore Renault’s return as a works team.
If we can imagine McLaren substantially progressing along the grid, Renault should be right alongside them, if not in front.
The Renault power unit was one of the weaker engines of 2015, yet, on the whole, it was better than its Honda peer. This doesn’t automatically mean Renault will continue to lead from McLaren in terms of technical development, but if history is anything to go by, Renault should still have the upper hand for the first half of the season.
Leaving to the side the Red Bull/Tag Heuer tie-up, and the Haas F1 team entry, both of which could offer some ‘spark’ in 2016, this year’s championship could already be considerably shaken up by both McLaren and Renault, if one or both of these teams produce a great car.
Though it’s too early to know, given that none of the 2016 contenders have been revealed, here are some bold predictions for this year’s Formula One season.
Mercedes will still be at the front of the pack come March, but Ferrari will steal some wins from them early on, the Scuderia fighting toe to toe with the Silver Arrows by the second half of the season.
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Renault will leap-frog Williams and Force India by the British Grand Prix, but won’t be on pace with the two front-runners until the season has almost set.
Red Bull will be off the pace to begin with, but they will have the best chassis on the grid. However, due to a lack of engine power, they will have to contend with an improved McLaren, and the newly formed, Ferrari powered, Haas F1 team.