NASCAR: Where Are All Of The First-Time Winners?

It has been 70 races since the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series had a first-time winner. With a handful of drivers waiting to break through, why has it been so long?

A.J. Allmendinger was the last first-time winner, scoring his one and only NASCAR Sprint Cup Series race win at Watkins Glen in August 2014. That same season Aric Almirola picked up his first win during the rain-shortened race at Daytona in July. Prior to that, there were no first-time winners in 2013 and 2012.

In 2011 NASCAR saw Trevor Bayne, Regan Smith, David Ragan, Paul Menard and Marcos Ambrose all visit victory lane for the first time in their careers. Imagine what the Chase would have looked like back in 2011 if a victory all but guaranteed locked in your spot?

So why haven’t we seen a new driver visit victory lane in almost two years? It is not for a lack of new talent in the sport.

Since the start of the 2014 season, Austin Dillon, Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott, Ryan Blaney and Chris Buescher have all joined the ranks for full-time NASCAR Sprint Cup Series drivers. Don’t forget to mention Ricky Stenhouse Jr. and Danica Patrick who are also winless to date. That makes seven full-time drivers, six if you remove Buescher and his inferior equipment, with a chance to break through.

So why hasn’t it happened already?

The ban on testing

Most will agree, saving money in NASCAR is a good thing for everyone in the sport. But since the testing ban has been in place, we have yet to see a first time winner. Coincidence? There is a good chance.

The lack of track time at similar tracks, or even venues where teams already had tons of data to compare with, hurts the development of a driver new to the sport. Losing out on a chance to provide feedback to your team hinders a new drivers ability to provide feedback during the race weekend. This is more than just seat time. Testing and racing in the Xfinity or Truck Series are completely different. More time in a Cup car with your crew chief and engineer is much better than a race on Saturday with a car that isn’t similar against competition that isn’t comparable.

The competition in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series is tough

There have been 10 different winners through twenty races this season. Seems pretty good right? Well, there were only 12 different winners in 2015. Those two winners from 2015 who haven’t won this season are Jeff Gordon and Dale Earnhardt Jr. Ironically enough, Gordon is currently subbing for Dale Earnhardt Jr. so that number might change.

This can also be said for drivers looking to end their winless streaks. Veteran drivers such as Greg Biffle, Ryan Newman, Jamie McMurrary and Kasey Kahne are missing from both the list of winners during the 2015 and 2016 seasons.

The rule packages are constantly changing

The 2014, 2015 and 2016 have all seen different aero packages, tire combinations and mid-season changes at certain racetracks to keep the drivers on their toes. Most of the aforementioned winless drivers are part of teams where their teammates have found victory lane through that change, however, much like a NFL quarterback having a new game plan or scheme season after season, it takes time to adjust.

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For the great drivers in NASCAR, these are all barriers that are broken down in time. There is no doubt that four or five of those names will find victory lane at least once during their career, some more than that. It may even happen this year. But for the time being, the lack of first-time winners in NASCAR’s premiere series is very much