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NASCAR: Chase-Clinching Scenarios For Richmond

By Christopher Olmstead

May 7, 2016; Kansas City, KS, USA; NASCAR Sprint Cup Series drivers Jamie Mcmurray (1) and Chase Elliott (24) race during the GoBowling.com 400 at Kansas Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
May 7, 2016; Kansas City, KS, USA; NASCAR Sprint Cup Series drivers Jamie Mcmurray (1) and Chase Elliott (24) race during the GoBowling.com 400 at Kansas Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports /
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The 2016 NASCAR Chase is almost here. All that stands between the drivers of the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series and the start of the playoffs is Richmond International Raceway.

When NASCAR hits Richmond this weekend, several NASCAR Sprint Cup Series drivers will be looking to lock their spots in the 2016 NASCAR Chase. Coming into the race 12 NASCAR drivers are locked into the Chase.

  • Kyle Busch
  • Brad Keselowski
  • Kevin Harvick
  • Jimmie Johnson
  • Joey Logano
  • Martin Truex Jr.
  • Denny Hamlin
  • Carl Edwards
  • Matt Kenseth
  • Tony Stewart
  • Kurt Busch
  • Kyle Larson

The only NASCAR driver with a win in 2016 that is not locked into the Chase is Chris Buescher. Buescher needs to come out of Richmond inside of the top-30 in points and he will secure his spot in the playoffs which begin next weekend in Chicago. Should Buescher not be inside of the top-30 after Richmond, it will open up a Chase spot for a driver without a win this season.

Below are the Chase-clinching scenarios for the drivers who have yet to secure their spot in the 2016 NASCAR Chase. These scenarios were compiled by NASCAR via NASCAR.com

  • Chris Buescher – Buescher’s fate is tied to David Ragan who he is competing with to be inside of the top-30 in points. If Buescher finishes in 7th (with no laps led), 8th (with one lapd led) or 9th (with the most laps led) he will clinch a spot regardless of what Ragan or anyone else does. If none of those happen he will need to finish 11 spots on the track ahead of Ragan to secure his spot in the top-30.
  • Chase Elliott – A top-17 finish with no laps led would lock Chase into the NASCAR Chase. A finish of 18th (with one lap led) or 19th (with the most laps led) would work as well. If there is a repeat winner and Chris Buescher falls outside of the top-30 he will clinch regardless of where he finishes. A win in Richmond would also clinch his spot in the Chase.
  • Austin Dillon – A top-eight finish with no laps led will secure his spot in the Chase. Dillion could also finish 9th (with one lap led) or 10th (with the most laps led) to secure as well. That’s with a new winner, if there is a repeat winner or Chase Elliott wins (or a new winner and Buescher falls out of the top-30) Dillon needs to finish 15th (with no laps led), 16th (with one lap led) or 17th (with the most laps led).
  • Jamie McMurray – Would clinch on points with a repeat winner (or win by Chase Elliott or Austin Dillon or a new winner and Chris Buescher falls out of the Top 30) and 35 points (6th and no laps led, 7th and led at least one lap, 8th and led most laps). If there is a repeat winner and Chris Buescher falls out of the Top 30, McMurray would clinch on points, regardless of finish. With a win, he would clinch a Chase spot on wins. Could clinch on points with a new winner and help (cannot lose more than six points to Newman as Newman would hold the tie-breaker).
  • Ryan Newman – THIS IS BASED ON HIM NOT BEING PENALIZED BY NASCAR FOR FAILING POST-RACE INSPECTION. With a win, he would clinch a Chase spot on wins. Could clinch on Points with help (would need to outpoint two of the following if there is a new winner, or one of the following if there is a repeat winner (or win by one of these drivers), McMurray by 7 or more points, Dillon by 17 or more points, Elliott by 25 or more points). If there is a repeat winner (or win by Elliott, Dillon, McMurray) and Chris Buescher falls out of the Top 30, he would need 5 points (36th and no laps led, 37th and led at least one lap, 38th and led most laps) to clinch on points.
  • Kasey Kahne – With a win, Kahne would clinch a Chase spot on wins. Could clinch on points with a repeat winner (or win by Elliott, Dillon or McMurray) and Chris Buescher falling outside of the Top 30 and help (would need to outpoint Newman by 37 (if he finishes in 3rd or higher) or by 38 points).

The following drivers need either a win to make the Chase or some combination of a win and help from other drivers as far as getting inside of the top-30 in points.

  • Trevor Bayne
  • Ryan Blaney
  • AJ Allmendinger
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
  • Greg Biffle
  • Danica Patrick
  • Paul Menard
  • Aric Almirola
  • Clint Bowyer
  • Landon Cassill
  • Casey Mears
  • David Ragan (needs win and top-30 in points)
  • Regan Smith (needs win and top-30 in points)

There are two wildcards coming into the weekend in Richmond. The first is Ryan Newman and the penalty for failing post-race inspection. The penalty will cost him anywhere from 10-15 points (assuming it’s similar to others who have failed this season). That penalty will hurt him and help others who are racing him for a spot in the Chase.

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The other wildcard factor is Chris Buescher. Although he has been running better as of late, he is a car that could easily have a poor finish. A poor run by Buescher and a decent run by Ragan would knock Buescher out of the Chase and open the door for another driver to make it based on points.

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