NASCAR: How Different Would it Be with No Playoffs?

Since 2004, NASCAR has included playoffs at the end of the season to make the championship battle more interesting. Without these playoffs, how different would the history of the sport be?

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With the NASCAR playoff systems (formerly known as the Chase) that have been used since 2004, all playoff qualifiers, regardless of regular season points totals, are on somewhat even ground coming into the playoffs, with small separations over the years determined by things such as win totals and regular season championship position. This season, playoff points totals earned via stage racing as well as regular season win totals will provide separation among playoff qualifiers.

How different would the history of NASCAR be if points were not altered prior to the playoff races and the playoff races were essentially regular season races?

NASCAR Champions with Chase Playoff Format

(The number in parenthesis is the number of championships each driver had won up to that point.)

2004 – Kurt Busch (1)

2005 – Tony Stewart (2)

2006 – Jimmie Johnson (1)

2007 – Jimmie Johnson (2)

2008 – Jimmie Johnson (3)

2009 – Jimmie Johnson (4)

2010 – Jimmie Johnson (5)

2011 – Tony Stewart (3)

2012 – Brad Keselowski (1)

2013 – Jimmie Johnson (6)

2014 – Kevin Harvick (1)

2015 – Kyle Busch (1)

2016 – Jimmie Johnson (7)

NASCAR Champions without Chase Playoff Format

Note that this information is based on the assumption that the points format used in the regular season in each of these respective seasons was used during the Chase of the same season. For example, it does not assume that the regular season points system from 2004 is used in 2016, or vice versa.

(The number in parenthesis is the number of championships each driver would have won up to that point.)

2004 – Jeff Gordon (5)

2005 – Tony Stewart (2)

2006 – Jimmie Johnson (1)

2007 – Jeff Gordon (6)

2008 – Carl Edwards (1)

2009 – Jimmie Johnson (2)

2010 – Kevin Harvick (1)

2011 – Carl Edwards (2)

2012 – Brad Keselowski (1)

2013 – Jimmie Johnson (3)

2014 – Jeff Gordon (7)

2015 – Kevin Harvick (2)

2016 – Kevin Harvick (3)

Notable Historical Implications

If all races had been scored the same and no Chase playoff formats had been used from 2004 to today, needless to say, the list of NASCAR champions would be much, much different, as you can see from the lists provided above.

Here are some of the key differences if the latter list were real as opposed to the former.

Jeff Gordon would be one of just three 7-time champions along with Richard Petty and Dale Earnhardt.
Jimmie Johnson would have won just 3 championships as opposed to a record 7.
Kevin Harvick would have won as many championships as Jimmie Johnson instead of 7 times fewer.
Neither Kurt Busch nor Kyle Busch would have won a single championship.
Carl Edwards, who has never won a championship, would be a 2-time champion.
Tony Stewart would have as many championships as Carl Edwards instead of 3 more than him.

The magnitude of some of these differences is insane. However, the fact is that it is what it is. For the past 13 seasons, a playoff format has been used to determine the NASCAR champion, and that doesn’t look like it will change in the near future.

What do these differences mean for some of these drivers whose championship totals would be drastically different if no Chase had been used over the past 13 seasons?

Analysis

For those drivers who have won more championships than they would have won with no Chase, it proves that they know how to win when it matters most. Someone like Jimmie Johnson, who has won four more championships than he would have if it were not for the Chase, has proven that in crunch time, he knows how to get the job done.

By the same logic, for those drivers who have won fewer championships than they would have won with no Chase, it proves that they are elite drivers, but they don’t necessarily shine brightest when it matters most. For instance, Jeff Gordon never won a championship in a playoff format, yet he’d have won three championships in the playoffs era if all races were scored the same way. This would tie him for the all-time record with seven championships won. Instead, he has won just four championships, which is still good enough for the 4th highest total of all-time, as he is indeed still an elite driver and one of the greatest NASCAR drivers of all-time.

Which system do you think is fairer to determine the NASCAR champion? While it won’t change anything that has already happened in the past, it would still be interesting to see where most people stand on this topic. Let us know in the comments below, and be sure to follow me on Instagram as well as Beyond the Flag on both Instagram and Twitter. Also, don’t forget to follow along with Beyond the Flag for the latest news, opinions, and analysis stemming from a number of different motorsports series. You don’t want to miss any of it.

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