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Chase Elliott Is Officially in the Danger Zone

By Asher Fair

RICHMOND, VA - APRIL 28: Chase Elliott, driver of the #24 NAPA Brakes Chevrolet, walks to his car during qualifying for the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Toyota Owners 400 at Richmond International Raceway on April 28, 2017 in Richmond, Virginia. (Photo by Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images)
RICHMOND, VA - APRIL 28: Chase Elliott, driver of the #24 NAPA Brakes Chevrolet, walks to his car during qualifying for the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Toyota Owners 400 at Richmond International Raceway on April 28, 2017 in Richmond, Virginia. (Photo by Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images) /
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Without a win so far in the 2017 season and in his entire NASCAR Cup Series career, Chase Elliott is officially in the danger zone when it comes to qualifying for the playoffs.

At this point in the season, it may be hard to believe. But there was a time this season when Chase Elliott sat in 2nd place in the championship standings behind only Kyle Larson.  That was the case after the eighth place of the season at Bristol, at which point Elliott had already finished in the top 5 three times, two of which being podium finishes.

In the 12 races since the point where Elliott sat in 2nd in the standings, he also has three top 5 finishes, two of which being podium finishes. But the fact remains that 20 races into this season and 61 races into his NASCAR Cup Series career, he is still without a victory. That may very well prevent him from making it to the playoffs.

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As of now, the lowest driver in the standings that would be one of the 16 drivers in the playoffs on points alone is Matt Kenseth, who sits in 9th place. Kenseth is just 22 points behind Elliott in 8th place, effectively making Elliott the 15th of 16 drivers currently in the playoffs.

Why is this? This is because eight drivers lower than 9th place in points currently have victories, and seven having locked themselves into the playoffs, with Joey Logano being the only one not locked in thanks to the fact that his victory at Richmond was encumbered.

Thanks to wins from drivers nowhere near the top 9 like Kurt Busch, Ryan Newman, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Austin Dillon and Kasey Kahne, Elliott has just one driver (Kenseth) separating himself from the playoff cut line. With six races to go, a win will lock him into the playoffs. However, he has never won a Cup Series race in his career before, so we’re not going to count on that.

What Elliott will likely end up having to count on are winless drivers currently lower than him in the standings staying winless. Otherwise, his chances at making the playoffs are pretty slim. Given the fact that there are a number of drivers lower than him in the standings that could easily win a race, relying on this may backfire.

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We have also seen some upset winners this season, so don’t rule that out either. But these three drivers in particular who are lower than Elliott in the standings without wins that count this season pose the biggest threat to his playoff chances. Matt Kenseth has gone winless in just four of his 17 seasons as a full-time Cup Series driver, and he is looking better every race.

Joey Logano, meanwhile, won earlier this season at Richmond, but his win was encumbered. Don’t rule out last year’s Cup Series runner-up, especially with him seemingly breaking out of his midseason slump at Indianapolis.

And finally, don’t rule out Clint Bowyer. He hasn’t won a race since the 2012 season, but he recently finished in 2nd place twice. He has had a great comeback season in arguably the best car he has ever driven, so he could do a lot of damage to Elliott’s playoff hopes.

Elliott is not the only driver in this position. Jamie McMurray and Kyle Busch are each in a similar spot, albeit currently ahead of Elliott in points, as is Kenseth, who we can’t forget would still be in the playoffs if the regular season ended today even though he is behind Elliott.

But given Elliott’s hot start to the season and the common idea that he is one of the sport’s rising stars as well as the “future of the sport” at age 21, he is the driver in the figurative danger zone that things don’t exactly look great for. While it would have been a shock to bring up the idea of him not making the playoffs a few months ago, that idea is not nearly as far-fetched now. He really is in danger of missing the playoffs for the first time in his young Cup Series career.

Next: NASCAR Driver Power Rankings

Do you think Chase Elliott will end up making the playoffs this season? Let us know in the comments below, and be sure to follow me on Instagram as well as Beyond the Flag on both Instagram and Twitter. Also, don’t forget to follow along with Beyond the Flag for the latest news, opinions, and analysis stemming from a number of different motorsports series. You don’t want to miss any of it.

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