Formula One: Pirelli predict 1.5-second gains to start 2018 season

Pirelli have predicted that lap times could drop by as much as one and a half seconds to open up the 2018 Formula One season.

Pirelli motorsport boss Mario Isola believes that lap times could drop by as much as 1.5 seconds to start the 2018 Formula One season as a result of car developments and particularly the new hypersoft tires that are set to be introduced this season.

The hypersoft tires are set to be introduced as a tire compound that is even softer than the ultrasoft compound, which was the softest compound. They will be introduced alongside the new superhard compound, which is even harder than the hard compound, which was the hardest compound.

Here is a picture of the “Pirelli Rainbow” selection of tires for the 2018 Formula One season. The hypersoft tires, which are expected to increase speeds and decrease lap times, have a pink trim.

In the 2017 Formula One season, the average pole position time fell by 2.450 seconds when compared to the pole position times from the 2016 season. If the speeds continue to increase and the times continue to fall, what will this mean for the sport?

The decrease in overtakes throughout the season 2017 from the 2016 is believed to have stemmed from the fact that the cars were faster.

This decrease was extremely noticeable, as it was nearly a 50% reduction across the board. There were just 435 overtakes in the 20 races in the 2017 season (21.8 overtakes per race on average) while there were 866 overtakes in the 21 races in the 2016 season (41.2 overtakes per race on average).

Here is how ESPN Formula One editor Laurence Edmondson analyzed the situation.

"“The aim of the 2017 regulations was to increase cornering speeds and cut lap times by making the cars and tyres wider while putting increased emphasis on aerodynamics. In many respects they were a success, with the average pole position time falling by 2.450s compared to 2016 and the average race fastest lap falling by 2.968s. However, the increased emphasis on aerodynamics has the side effect of making it more difficult for cars to follow one another on track as the turbulent air coming off the car in front reduces the effectiveness of the aero package of the car behind.”"

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Here is what Isola had to say about the potential speed increase and lap time decrease in the 2018 Formula One season, according to Racer.com.

"“In terms of performance I believe 1 or 1.5 seconds is a reasonable number.”"

So if the speeds do continue to climb and the lap times do continue to decrease like Isola expects, will that end up decreasing the number of overtakes again, thus decreasing the overall competition in the sport, which has already experienced an extreme decline in just one season due to increased speeds and decreased lap times?

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Will the projected lap time decrease of up to 1.5 seconds to start the Formula One season end up helping the sport or hurting it via a decrease in competition and overtaking like we saw in the 2017 season when speeds were up and lap times were down? The season is set to get underway in just under two and a half months with the Australian Grand Prix on Sunday, March 25th.