Three Formula 1 teams are set to face mathematical elimination from championship contention in the 2018 Italian Grand Prix this weekend.
Heading into the 14th race of the 21-race 2018 Formula 1 season, the Italian Grand Prix, this Sunday, September 2, three teams are set to face elimination from championship contention.
Six of the 10 teams are set to enter this 53-lap race around the 11-turn, 3.600-mile (5.793-kilometer) Autodromo Nazionale Monza road course in Monza, Italy, but only three of them are guaranteed to remain mathematically eligible to win the championship once lap 53 has been completed.
Mercedes-AMG Petronas Motorsport currently lead the constructor standings with 375 points thanks to 231 points from points leader Lewis Hamilton and 144 points from Valtteri Bottas through the first 13 races of the season.
A total of 344 points are still on the table for each team with eight races remaining in the season as a result of the fact that teams can score a maximum of 43 points in a race since two drivers compete for each team. Race wins are worth 25 points and second place finishes are worth 18 points.
Because of this, all teams that are not within 344 points of Mercedes, meaning all teams that have not scored at least 31 points so far this season, have already been mathematically eliminated from championship contention. There are four of these teams, and they are Williams Martini Racing, Racing Point Force India, Alfa Romeo Sauber and Scuderia Toro Rosso.
Once the Italian Grand Prix is completed, just seven races will remain in the season, and only 301 points will be on the table for each team.
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Renault Sport, Haas and McLaren are all at risk of falling at least 301 points behind Mercedes for the lead of the constructor standings once the Italian Grand Prix comes to an end. They will be mathematically eliminated from championship contention if this happens.
Renault currently sit in fourth place in the driver standings with 82 points. They trail Mercedes by 293, so they will need to avoid being outscored by the Silver Arrows by more than eight points in the Italian Grand Prix to remain in championship contention after the race ends.
Haas have scored 76 points so far this season. As a result, they sit in fifth place in the constructor standings, and they trail Mercedes by 299 points. In order to remain in championship contention after this Sunday’s race comes to an end, they will need to avoid being outscored by more than two points by the German team in it.
Finally, McLaren current sit in sixth place in the constructor standings, and they have scored 52 points so far this season. Because of the fact that they trail Mercedes by 323 points, they will need to outscore the four-time defending champions by at least 22 points in the Italian Grand Prix to remain mathematically eligible to win the championship heading into the next race, the Singapore Grand Prix.
None of these three teams really have a legitimate chance to win this season’s constructor championship anyway, but it appears as though the Italian Grand Prix will be the race after which they no longer have a mathematical chance of doing so.
The two teams between first place Mercedes and fourth place Renault in the constructor standings are Scuderia Ferrari and Aston Martin Red Bull Racing. Those two teams currently have 360 and 238 points and sit in second and third place, respectively, in the standings. Ferrari sit just 15 points behind Mercedes and appear to be poised to battle with them to the end of the season, but Red Bull Racing are at risk of being mathematically eliminated within the next few races.
That said, even if Hamilton and Bottas both finished in the top two in the Italian Grand Prix and Mercedes score 43 points as a result of it, their point total would increase to 418, which is 180 points ahead of Red Bull Racing’s current point total.
As a result, the Milton Keynes-based team are safe and cannot be mathematically eliminated from championship contention in this weekend’s race. In fact, they cannot be mathematically eliminated from championship contention for at least another three races.
Be sure to tune in to ESPN2 at 9:10 a.m. ET this Sunday, September 2 for the live broadcast of the Italian Grand Prix. Will Renault Sport, Haas and McLaren be mathematically eliminated from championship contention once the 14th race of the 2018 Formula 1 season concludes?