After winning 17 of the first 23 races of the 2018 NASCAR Cup Series season, no “big three” driver has won since. Are the “big three” still the “big three”?
Heading into the 24th race of the 2018 NASCAR Cup Series season, the Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race, at Bristol Motor Speedway, drivers not included in the “big three” had a chance to do something that had not been done throughout the entire season up until that point.
They had a chance to secure two victories in a three-race span.
Through the season’s first 23 races, there had not been a three-race span during which one or more of the “big three” drivers, Stewart-Haas Racing’s Kevin Harvick, Joe Gibbs Racing’s Kyle Busch and Furniture Row Racing’s Martin Truex Jr., the defending Cup Series champion, did not secure at least two victories.
Heading into the season’s 24th race, Hendrick Motorsports’ Chase Elliott had just won the 22nd race of the season at Watkins Glen International and Harvick had just won the 23rd race of the season at Michigan International Speedway.
Had Harvick, Busch or Truex Jr. won this race, this trend would have continued.
Busch won the race — but not Kyle Busch. Instead, it was Stewart-Haas Racing’s Kurt Busch who was victorious, meaning that for the first time all season, two races in a three-race span had been won by non-“big three” drivers.
Since then, it has only gotten worse for the “big three”.
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Team Penske’s Brad Keselowski earned his first victory of the season by winning the season’s 25th race, the Bojangles’ Southern 500, at Darlington Raceway, giving non-“big three” drivers three victories in a four-race span for the first time all season and two consecutive victories for the first time all season.
Keselowski followed up his victory in the race at Darlington Raceway with a victory in the 26th and final race of the regular season, the Big Machine Vodka 400 at the Brickyard, more commonly known as the Brickyard 400, at Indianapolis Motor Speedway.
As a result, heading into the playoffs, non-“big three” drivers have won four of the last five races, and perhaps more notably, they have won each of the last three races.
This raises one simple question: are the “big three” still the “big three”?
The most recent race winner of the “big three” is Harvick. Three races have passed since he won the August race at Michigan International Speedway. In the three races that have taken place since then, his average finish is 6.00. Throughout the entire season so far, his average finish is 7.81, so it isn’t like he is in a slump.
Kyle Busch’s most recent victory came in the July race at Pocono Raceway. Since then, five races have passed. In those five races, his average finish is 8.20. Throughout the entire season so far, his average finish is 7.58, so while he hasn’t been at his best, it isn’t like he is in a slump, either.
Truex Jr., on the other hand, is in a slump. Seven races have passed since his most recent victory, which came in the race at Kentucky Speedway. In those seven races, his average finish is 16.57. In the last five races, his average finish is 19.40. In the last three races, his average finish is 27.00, and finally, he finished in 40th place in the most recent race. As a result, his average finish throughout the entire season has dropped to 11.35.
While they haven’t been at their best lately, Harvick and Busch are still a part of the “big three”. But the “big three” may very well have become the “big two”. Over the last several races, Truex Jr. has not performed anywhere close to the level at which he is used to performing. He has work to do if he wants to defend his 2017 Cup Series championship.
Are the “big three” still the “big three”? Will they all advance to the Championship 4 like many people have predicated throughout the entire 2018 NASCAR Cup Series season that they will? If not, which of the three drivers will be eliminated in which round of the playoffs?